We have teamed up with Oxford Economics to examine the impact technology will have on the labor market as existing job tasks are automated. By modeling the shifts in the nature of work across 800+ jobs, we are able to determine which industries are most vulnerable to automation and where new employment opportunities will arise.
We wanted to better understand how rapid technological change could impact the future of work in the next 10 years. Informed by this and other research, we are able to turn insight into action through our evolving programs, grants, and services to empower a human network of Global Problem Solvers focusing on how digitization and innovation can maximize inclusion.
Despite concerns that technology will displace workers, history and our research shows new jobs emerge as existing jobs are automated. What we can expect in the future is a shift in the nature — and potentially the quality — of work:
In line with historical trends over the last 20 years, our employment forecast is a balancing of the “displacement effect” caused by technology countered by a top-down “income effect” as industry harnesses the power of technology to improve productivity.
4.3 million workers — 3% of the total workforce — will be displaced
An additional 2.2 million workers will be disrupted
There will be a total of 6.5 million job moves by 2027
Our research does not forecast large-scale unemployment. Rather, it predicts a labor market that is reconfigured:
It is the rise in demand for human skills that ultimately helps define the transition to the 2027 labor market. Human skills embody workers’ ability to make the best use of technological innovations on a large scale and how to adapt to the changing needs of the market:
Through this research, policymakers, the private sector, nonprofit organizations, and educators can understand where the skills shortfalls will be:
Oxford Economics is a leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis for business and government. It is one of the most trusted resources for decision-makers seeking independent thinking and evidence-based research.