The Cisco® Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update is part of the comprehensive Cisco VNI Forecast, an ongoing initiative to track and forecast the impact of visual networking applications on global networks. This paper presents some of Cisco's key global mobile data traffic projections and growth trends.
Executive Summary
Globally, mobile data traffic will double every year through 2014, increasing 39 times between 2009 and 2014. Mobile data traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 108 percent between 2009 and 2014, reaching 3.6 exabytes per month by 2014.
Almost 66 percent of the world's mobile data traffic will be video by 2014. Mobile video will grow at a CAGR of 131 percent between 2009 and 2014. Mobile video has the highest growth rate of any application category measured within the Cisco VNI Forecast at this time (see Appendix A for applications details).
The Middle East and Africa will have the strongest growth of any region at 133 percent CAGR, followed by Asia Pacific at 119 percent and North America at 117 percent (see Appendix A for region details).
Year in Review: Mobile Data Traffic Growth in 2009
In spite of the economic downturn, which many regions only now are starting to slowly rebound from, the demand for mobile services has remained constant and has in fact grown in many areas. Our global estimates show that mobile data traffic increased 160 percent from calendar year-end 2008 to calendar year-end 2009. And individually, some mobile carriers have published some dramatic traffic increases. For example, the United Kingdom-based O2 reported that its mobile data traffic in Europe doubled every three months in 2009; Telecom Italia announced that its mobile traffic grew 216 percent from mid-2008 to mid-2009; and AT&T has reported that its mobile traffic increased 5000 percent in the past 3 years.
The Impact of Video and Advanced Devices on Mobile Traffic
According to the Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, video will be responsible for the majority of the traffic growth between 2009 and 2014. As Figures 1 and 2 show, overall mobile data traffic is expected to grow to 3.6 exabytes per month by 2014, and over 2.3 of those are due to mobile video traffic.
Figure 1. Cisco Forecasts 3.6 Exabytes per Month of Mobile Data Traffic by 2014
Figure 2. Video Will Account for 66 Percent of Global Mobile Data Traffic by 2014
Figure 3 shows the devices responsible for mobile data traffic growth. Smartphones and portables will account for 91 percent of all mobile data traffic by 2014. This is primarily due to the much higher usage profile of laptops and the suitability of mobile broadband handsets for high-speed, high-quality video.
Figure 3. Laptops and Smartphones Drive Traffic Growth
The average smartphone user generates 10 times the amount of traffic generated by the average non-smartphone user. Handset traffic is highest in regions with the highest smartphone penetration. Currently, Italy has the highest smartphone penetration, and will continue to be the smartphone leader through the forecast period. Starting at a low base, India will experience the highest increase in smartphone penetration, which will triple over the forecast period, and number of smartphone users, which will grow 5.5 fold by 2014.
Table 1. Percentage of Install Base of Smartphones over all Mobile Handsets
Region or Country
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Asia Pacific
China
10%
11%
13%
15%
18%
21%
India
4%
5%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Korea
14%
15%
17%
21%
25%
30%
Rest of Asia Pacific
8%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
Total Asia Pacific
8%
9%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
Rest of CEE
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
16%
Russia
6%
7%
9%
11%
15%
17%
Total CEE
6%
7%
9%
11%
14%
16%
Japan
Japan
4%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Total Japan
4%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Latin America
Brazil
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
Mexico
3%
4%
5%
7%
10%
12%
Rest of Latin America
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
Total Latin America
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
Middle East and Africa (MEA)
Rest of MEA
3%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
South Africa
1%
2%
2%
3%
4%
4%
Total MEA
3%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
North America
Canada
30%
31%
34%
40%
47%
50%
United States
32%
33%
37%
44%
51%
55%
Total North America
32%
33%
37%
44%
51%
54%
Western Europe
France
16%
18%
21%
27%
29%
33%
Germany
17%
19%
22%
25%
29%
33%
Italy
36%
40%
47%
54%
63%
67%
Rest of Western Europe
31%
36%
41%
49%
58%
64%
United Kingdom
17%
18%
20%
23%
29%
32%
Total Western Europe
25%
28%
32%
37%
44%
49%
Global
9%
10%
11%
13%
15%
17%
Source: Cisco VNI Mobile, Informa Media and Telecoms, In-Stat, Gartner, 2009, 2010
The advent of laptops and high-end handsets onto mobile networks is a key driver of traffic, since these devices offer the consumer content and applications not supported by the previous generation of mobile devices. Chief among these new sources of traffic is video, but other applications such as peer-to-peer (P2P) are already making an impact. As shown in Figure 4, a single laptop can generate as much traffic as 1300 basic-feature phones, and a smartphone creates as much traffic as 10 basic-feature phones. iPhones, in particular, can generate as much traffic as 30 basic feature phones.
Figure 4. High-End Handsets and Laptops Can Multiply Traffic
Picoprojectors are a nascent feature addition to smartphones. Although very small in number, this category promises to create higher multiples of traffic due to the high bandwidth required to project images and videos from an advanced mobile device.
Figure 5. Mobile Picoprojector Traffic
Traffic Migration from Mobile to Fixed
Much mobile data activity takes place within the user's home. A survey conducted by Cisco's Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG) helps quantify the amount of home-based mobile Internet use. As shown in Table 3, the percentage of time spent using mobile Internet at home ranges from 28.2 percent (Mexico) to 48.6 percent (South Africa). The amount of mobile data traffic that is literally "in motion" ranges from 23.7 percent (India) to 45.2 percent (France).
Table 2. Mobile Internet Time at Home, at Work and On The Move
Percentage of Mobile Internet Time at Home
Percentage of Mobile Internet Time at Work
Percentage of Mobile Internet Time On the Go
United States
37.8%
19.6%
42.6%
United Kingdom
45.6%
17.8%
36.6%
Germany
43.4%
15.3%
41.3%
France
33.1%
21.7%
45.2%
Italy
39.6%
21.4%
39.0%
South Africa
48.6%
21.4%
30.0%
Mexico
28.2%
27.6%
44.2%
Brazil
36.7%
24.7%
38.6%
Korea
33.7%
31.7%
34.6%
India
45.9%
30.4%
23.7%
China
30.1%
32.7%
37.2%
Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2009
The relatively high percentage of home-based mobile data use suggests that operators may be able to offload traffic onto a fixed network, either by offering their subscribers dual-mode mobile phones or through deployment of femtocell technology.
Cisco has estimated the amount of smartphone traffic that can be offloaded through dual-mode devices or femtocells (see Table 3). The offload factor for each country is a combination of smartphone penetration, dual-mode share of smartphones, percentage of home-based mobile Internet use, percentage of dual-mode smartphone owners with Wi-Fi fixed Internet access at home.
Table 3. Dual-Mode and Femtocell Traffic Offload as a Percentage of Smartphone Traffic
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
China
15%
15%
15%
16%
16%
17%
India
22%
23%
20%
16%
12%
8%
Korea
20%
22%
22%
23%
24%
25%
Rest of APAC
22%
23%
25%
26%
27%
29%
Rest of CEE
26%
26%
26%
26%
27%
27%
Russia
26%
27%
29%
30%
31%
32%
Japan
24%
25%
25%
24%
24%
23%
Brazil
18%
18%
19%
19%
19%
18%
Mexico
14%
12%
10%
9%
9%
8%
Rest of LATAM
16%
16%
15%
14%
14%
13%
Rest of MEA
20%
21%
19%
19%
19%
19%
South Africa
23%
24%
23%
22%
22%
22%
Canada
13%
16%
18%
21%
23%
24%
US
13%
16%
18%
20%
22%
23%
France
23%
24%
24%
26%
27%
28%
Germany
30%
31%
32%
33%
32%
31%
Italy
25%
23%
22%
22%
21%
21%
Rest of WE
27%
28%
29%
30%
29%
28%
UK
31%
32%
34%
35%
35%
35%
Source: Cisco VNI Mobile, 2010
In many developing countries and regions, the offload percentage declines, while in developed regions, the offload factor steadily rises throughout the forecast period. The declining offload factor in developing markets is due to a decreasing number of mobile data users with Wi-Fi at home.
Since dual-mode devices are primarily smartphones, the overall offload amount in the current year is much smaller than shown above, since non-smartphones still account for approximately half of handset traffic.
Traffic Migration from Fixed to Mobile
While a significant amount of traffic will migrate from mobile to fixed networks, a much greater amount of traffic will migrate from fixed to mobile networks.
In many countries in Europe, mobile operators are offering mobile broadband services at prices and speeds comparable to fixed broadband. Though there are often data caps on mobile broadband services that are lower than those of fixed broadband, some consumers are opting to forgo their fixed lines in favor of mobile. Mobile broadband substitution has a familiar ring to it from the mobile voice substitution effect that began in the late 1990s and is continuing today.
Below are Cisco's estimates for the number of mobile-only data users for each country covered by the forecast. The adoption rates for mobile-only data users were estimated by analogy, using each country's historical mobile-only voice adoption curves as a guideline. Tables 4 and 5 show the status of mobile-only voice adoption and Cisco's estimates for mobile-only data adoption, worldwide.
Table 4. Mobile-Only Voice Access by Country, 2009
Individuals with Mobile-Only Voice Access
% of Population with Mobile-Only Voice Access
% of Households with Mobile-Only Voice Access
India
285 million
24%
11%
U.S.
78 million
25%
18%
Brazil
67 million
35%
23%
China
47 million
4%
2%
Japan
40 million
31%
20%
Russia
37 million
26%
14%
Mexico
29 million
26%
16%
South Africa
24 million
48%
28%
Italy
23 million
39%
26%
UK
11 million
18%
13%
Germany
10 million
12%
10%
France
9 million
14%
11%
Korea
9 million
18%
12%
Source: Cisco VNI Mobile, ITU, Informa Telecoms and Media, 2009-2010
Table 5. Mobile-Only Data Users by Country, 2009-2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
India
163,689
828,683
3,888,314
17,256,707
73,829,086
308,851,560
China
190,146
518,583
1,383,970
3,642,164
9,443,822
24,300,965
Korea
376,500
602,666
957,999
1,516,525
2,393,976
3,771,869
Japan
111,394
359,198
1,150,448
3,670,717
11,683,890
22,854,370
Brazil
827,558
3,040,933
10,931,351
38,697,116
60,403,090
78,730,025
Mexico
971,776
3,948,432
15,768,396
25,198,155
30,515,904
34,612,380
Italy
3,916,047
6,857,703
11,931,072
20,667,916
22,410,783
24,974,231
UK
600,749
1,552,295
3,985,042
7,133,489
8,947,340
11,918,730
Germany
25,647
52,075
105,116
211,393
424,078
6,570,142
France
54,576
168,444
515,510
1,569,244
4,759,895
6,844,943
U.S.
1,385,555
2,870,536
5,895,539
12,037,664
24,481,704
57,908,159
South Africa
2,088,276
4,713,732
10,554,417
16,657,697
20,701,824
24,924,337
Russia
2,137,895
4,165,446
7,995,997
15,187,490
28,634,331
29,505,517
Source: Cisco VNI Mobile, 2010
Beyond the Substitution Effect: New Behaviors
Mobile devices increase an individual's contact time with the network, and it is likely that in the early stages of mobile Internet, this increased contact time will lead to an increase in overall minutes of use per user. However, not all of the increase in mobile data minutes-of-use can be attributed to the amplified use of the same applications that dominate the fixed network. Some uniquely mobile applications are already emerging.
A lot of excitement has been building around a category of iPhone and Android applications in a new category called "augmented reality" applications or "social augmented reality" mobile location-based services.
These applications combine virtual data into the physical real world by utilizing the iPhone 3GS or an Android phone's compass, camera, and GPS. The result is that users can view the location of a tweet (Twitter) and local restaurants in the physical world, even if they are miles away. An example is the Sekai Camera iPhone application in Japan-users can leave text messages, photos, and audio recordings that appear as floating bubbles in the location they are created. Other users can point their Sekai Camera at the location to see what kind of content has been posted there.
Regional Trends
Western Europe and Asia Pacific will account for over 56 percent of global mobile, as shown in Figure 6. The emerging market regions (Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Middle East and Africa) will have the highest growth and will represent an increasing share of total mobile data traffic, from 9 percent at the end of 2009 to 14 percent by 2014.
Figure 6. Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast by Region
Each region's mobile data traffic is strongly correlated with the average mobile speed available in that region. Below are smartphone speed test results from Cisco's Global Internet Speed Test (GiST) application.
Table 6. Average Smartphone Mobile Speed by Region
Emergence of Prosumers: Comparison of Consumer and Business Mobile Traffic
Consumer and business mobile IP traffic is on the rise with increased smartphone and portables adoption. Consumer mobile data traffic is growing and will continue to gain higher momentum due to the emergence and growth of the prosumers as well the adoption of Smartphones with advanced music and video capabilities. In 2009, consumers represent 67% of the total mobile data traffic while business mobile users contributed is 33% of total mobile data traffic. By 2014, consumer mobile Internet traffic will account for 73% of all mobile data traffic.
Figure 7. Global Business and Consumer Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2009-2014
One of the key contributors to the growth of business mobile data traffic is enterprise mobile applications. Examples include fleet tracking of vehicles, assets and personnel, real time location of multiple devices and automated location based alerts. Initially assumed to be text and map image based, this category will evolve in volume of traffic as well as develop into multimedia grade mobile traffic.
Figure 8. Enterprise Mobile Applications on the Rise, 2009-2014
Long-Term Outlook: Device Diversification and Ubiquitous Mobility
Mobile voice service is already considered a necessity by many, and mobile data, video, and TV services are now becoming an essential part of consumers' lives. Mobile subscribers are growing rapidly and bandwidth demand due to data and video is increasing. Mobile machine-to-machine (M2M) connections continue to increase. The next five years are projected to provide unabated mobile video adoption despite the recent economic downturn. Operators are rolling out increased bandwidth through Enhanced Data rates for GSM Evolution (EDGE), Evolution-Data Optimized (EV-DO), High-Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA), and related upgrades. There is a need for backhaul capacity to increase in order for mobile broadband, data access, and video services to engage the end consumer as well as keep costs in check.
Deploying next-generation mobile networks requires greater service portability and interoperability. With the proliferation of mobile and portable digital devices, there is an imminent need for the network to allow for all these devices to be connected seamlessly. This openness will broaden the range of applications and services that can be shared, creating a highly enriched mobile broadband experience. The expansion of wireless ubiquity will lead to an increase of consumers who access and rely on mobile networks, creating a need for greater economies of scale and lower per-bit cost.
A win-win situation needs to be formed for the service providers and the over-the-top providers. New partnerships, ecosystems and strategic consolidations are expected as mobile operators, content providers, application developers (et al.) seek to monetize the video traffic that traverses mobile networks. Operators must solve the challenge of effectively monetizing video traffic while investing and increasing infrastructure capital expenditures. It is imperative to become more agile and disruptive by changing course in a short amount of time and provide innovative services to engage the Web 3.0 consumer. As the net neutrality regulatory process and business models of the operators evolve, there is an unmet demand for highest quality and speeds by consumers. With wireless technologies aiming to provide wired experiences, the next few years will be critical for operators and service providers to plan their future network deployments.
Appendix A: The Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
Table 7 shows a detailed breakout of the Cisco Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast.
Table 7. Global Mobile Data Traffic 2009-2014
Mobile Data Traffic 2009-2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
CAGR
2009-2014
By Application Category (TB per month)
Video
35,897
113,094
298,981
652,846
1,322,219
2,336,732
131%
P2P
15,496
23,783
50,740
104,969
177,250
276,952
78%
Gaming
4,615
11,716
27,038
62,199
110,981
173,177
106%
VoIP
4,579
11,245
24,918
55,821
100,028
156,829
103%
Web/Data/Other
30,242
60,251
133,827
273,782
451,264
621,610
83%
By Device Type (TB per month)
Non-Smartphones
7,179
15,678
33,965
63,938
103,350
142,612
82%
Smartphones
9,390
27,446
78,199
192,392
407,870
748,713
140%
Portables, Netbooks, Tablets
69,857
166,229
397,056
836,510
1,543,097
2,495,710
104%
Broadband Gateways
4,402
10,735
26,283
56,776
107,425
178,265
110%
By Geography (TB per month)
North America
16,022
40,607
103,141
230,738
451,395
773,361
117%
Western Europe
29,236
69,962
168,084
356,244
661,233
1,076,290
106%
Asia Pacific
18,432
47,301
121,513
274,652
542,383
937,299
119%
Japan
18,159
39,425
84,792
158,127
252,393
342,132
80%
Latin America
4,267
10,494
25,908
56,424
107,612
179,976
111%
Central Eastern Europe
2,905
7,251
18,157
40,083
77,446
131,151
114%
Middle East and Africa
1,807
5,047
13,907
33,349
69,278
125,092
133%
Outer Space
0.0006
0.0064
0.0425
0.0923
0.1634
0.2934
284%
By Application (TB per month)
Content Uploads
73
155
326
589
899
1,140
73%
Email
1,710
3,430
6,612
10,471
12,690
9,382
41%
Games Downloads
164
345
711
1,252
1,837
2,177
68%
Instant Messaging (IM)
0.02
0.04
0.09
0.18
0.32
0.48
94%
Enterprise Applications
274
733
1,948
4,535
9,193
16,258
126%
Mobile Internet
523
1,147
2,500
4,743
7,744
10,836
83%
Music Downloads
291
690
1,646
3,461
6,372
10,283
104%
Music Streaming
4,196
10,118
24,499
52,336
97,927
160,707
107%
Gaming
26
61
141
289
516
806
98%
Picoprojector
-
87
422
1,360
3,410
7,031
-
Picture Downloads
125
265
554
997
1,513
1,896
72%
Text Messaging
7
14
27
41
49
32
36%
Social Networking
810
1,960
4,760
10,201
19,148
31,524
108%
Application Downloads
14
33
79
168
313
511
106%
Tethering
599
3,313
12,592
36,758
87,406
174,317
211%
Video Downloads
37
85
199
410
737
1,158
99%
Video Messages
23
50
110
210
346
490
85%
Video Messages and Calling
5
11
23
44
73
103
84%
Video Streaming
7,694
16,143
34,767
73,590
147,818
293,690
107%
PC-Based Web/Email/Files
19,861
41,240
88,904
179,972
311,104
469,321
88%
PC-Based P2P
10,406
24,192
51,779
106,569
198,601
310,350
97%
PC-Based Internet Gaming
4,424
11,511
26,739
61,606
120,456
198,110
114%
PC-Based Internet Voice
4,851
11,438
25,428
56,672
111,586
183,882
107%
PC-Based Internet Video
31,218
87,094
237,400
502,402
913,143
1,424,220
115%
PC-Based Internet video communications
3,499
9,758
24,297
58,459
120,577
205,410
126%
Total (TB per month)
Total Mobile Data Traffic
90,829
220,088
535,503
1,149,617
2,161,741
3,565,300
108%
Source: Cisco VNI Mobile, 2010
Definitions
Portables: This category includes laptops with mobile data cards, USB modems, and other portable devices with embedded cellular connectivity.
Appendix B: The Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Methodology
The Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Forecast relies in part upon data published by Informa Telecoms and Media, Infonetics, Cahners In-Stat, Datamonitor, Gartner, IDC, Dell'Oro, Synergy, Nielsen, comScore, and the International Telecommunications Union (ITU).
With the February 2010 update, the Cisco VNI methodology for the mobile data traffic forecast has been significantly expanded and enhanced. In general, the forecast methodology still begins with the number and growth of connections and devices, applies adoption rates for applications, and then multiplies the application's user base by Cisco's estimated minutes of use and kilobytes per minute for that application. Within that general outline, the methodology has evolved to link assumptions more closely with fundamental drivers, to use data sources unique to Cisco, and to provide a high degree of application, segment, geographic, and device granularity.
1. Inclusion of fundamental drivers. As with the fixed IP traffic forecast, each Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Forecast update increases the linkages between the key assumptions and fundamental drivers such as available connection speed, pricing of connections and devices, computational processing power, screen size and resolution, and even device battery life. This update focuses on the relationship of mobile connection speeds and the kilobyte-per-minute assumptions in the forecast model. Proprietary data from the Cisco Global Internet Speed Test (GIST) application was used as a baseline for current-year smartphone connection speeds for each country.
2. Device-centric approach. As the number and variety of devices on the mobile network continue to increase, it becomes essential to model traffic at the device level rather than the connection level. This Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Forecast update details traffic to smartphones, non-smartphones, laptops/tablets/netbooks, e-readers, digital still cameras, digital video cameras, digital photo frames, in-car entertainment systems, and handheld gaming consoles.
3. Estimation of the impact of traffic offload. The Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Forecast model now quantifies the impact of dual-mode devices and femtocells on handset traffic. Proprietary data from Cisco's IBSG Connected Life Market Watch was used to model offload effects.
4. Increased application-level granularity. The forecast now offers a deeper and wider range of application granularity. The Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Forecast, 2009-2014 white paper includes data on 20 separate applications, compared to the 9 application groups that were published in the previous version of the forecast.
5. Business and consumer split. Like the fixed IP traffic forecast, the Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Forecast now separates business mobile data traffic from consumer mobile data traffic.
6. Bottoms-up forecasting from the country level. While country-level detail was included in last year's Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Forecast, individual country forecasts were estimates based on the overall forecast of that region. This year's forecasting process started with individual country forecasts, which were subsequently aggregated into regional summaries.
