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Our equity portfolio consists of securities with characteristics that
most closely match the S&P Index or companies traded on the NASDAQ
Exchange. The NASDAQ Composite Index has shown a 15% movement in each of
the last three years, a 35% movement in one of the last three years, and
a 50% movement in none of the last three years.
We also are exposed to interest rate risk associated with leases on its
facilities whose payments are tied to the London Interbank Offered Rate
(LIBOR) and has evaluated the hypothetical change in lease obligations
held at July 31, 1999 due to changes in the LIBOR. The modeling technique
used measured hypothetical changes in lease obligations arising from
selected hypothetical changes in the LIBOR. Market changes reflected
immediate hypothetical parallel shifts in the LIBOR curve of plus or
minus 50 BPS, 100 BPS, and 150 BPS over a 12-month period. The results of
this analysis were not material to our financial results.
We enter into forward foreign exchange contracts to offset the impact of
currency fluctuations on certain nonfunctional currency assets and
liabilities, primarily denominated in euro, Japanese, Canadian,
Australian, and certain European currencies.
We generally enter into forward currency contracts that have original
maturities of one to three months, with none having a maturity greater
than one year in length. The total notional values of forward contracts
purchased and forward contracts sold were $211 million and $180 million,
respectively. We do not expect gains or losses on these contracts to have
a material impact on our financial results (see Note 7 to the financial
statements).
We expect that in the future, our net sales may grow at a slower rate
than experienced in previous periods, and that on a quarter-to-quarter
basis, our growth in net sales may be significantly lower than our
historical quarterly growth rate. As a consequence, operating results for
a particular quarter are extremely difficult to predict. Our ability to
meet financial expectations could be hampered if the nonlinear sales
pattern seen in past quarters reoccurs in future periods. We generally
have had one quarter of the fiscal year when backlog has been reduced.
Although such reductions have not occurred consistently in recent years,
they are difficult to predict and may occur in the future. In addition,
in response to customer demand, we continue to attempt to reduce our
product manufacturing lead times, which may result in corresponding
reductions in order backlog. A decline in backlog levels could result in
more variability and less predictability in our quarter-to-quarter net
sales and operating results going forward. On the other hand, for certain
products, lead times are longer than our goal. If we cannot reduce
manufacturing lead times for such products, our customers may cancel
orders or not place further orders if shorter lead times are available
from other manufacturers, thus creating additional variability.
As a result of recent unfavorable economic conditions, sales to certain
countries in the Pacific Rim, Eastern Europe, and Latin America have
declined as a percentage of our total revenue. If the economic conditions
in these markets, or other markets that recently experienced unfavorable
conditions worsen, or if these unfavorable conditions result in a wider
regional or global economic slowdown, this decline may have a material
adverse impact on our business, operations, and financial condition.
Recent actions and comments from the Securities and Exchange Commission
have indicated they are reviewing the current valuation methodology of
purchased in-process research and development related to business
combinations. The Commission is concerned that some companies are writing
off more of the value of an acquisition than is appropriate. We believe
we are in compliance with all of the rules and related guidance as they
currently exist. However, there can be no assurance that the Commission
will not seek to reduce the amount of purchased in-process research and
development previously expensed by us. This would result in the
restatement of our previously filed financial statements and could have a
material negative impact on financial results for the periods subsequent
to acquisitions. Additionally, the Financial Accounting Standards Board
("FASB") has announced that it plans to rescind the pooling of interests
method of acquisition accounting. If this occurs, it could alter our
acquisition strategy and potentially impair our ability to acquire
companies. The FASB has also announced that it is reviewing the current
accounting rules associated with stock options. The FASB is concerned
that current practice, as outlined in Accounting Principles Board No. 25
(APB25), does not accurately reflect appropriate compensation expense
under a variety of scenarios, including the assumption of option plans
from acquired companies. The changes proposed could make it more
difficult to attract and retain qualified personnel and could unfavorably
impact operating results.
We expect that gross margins may be adversely affected by increases in
material or labor costs, heightened price competition, and changes in
channels of distribution or in the mix of products sold. For example, we
believe that gross margins may decline over time, because the markets for
lower-margin access products targeted toward small to medium-sized
customers have continued to grow at a faster rate than the markets for
our higher-margin router and high-performance switching products targeted
toward enterprise and service provider customers. We have recently
introduced several new products, with additional new products scheduled
to be released in the near future. If warranty costs associated with
these new products are greater than we have experienced historically,
gross margins may be adversely affected. Our gross margins may also be
impacted by geographic mix, as well as the mix of configurations within
each product group. We continue to expand into third-party or indirect
distribution channels, which generally results in lower gross margins. In
addition, increasing third-party and indirect distribution channels
generally results in greater difficulty in forecasting the mix of our
products, and to a certain degree, the timing of its orders.
We also expect that our operating margins may decrease as we continue to
hire additional personnel and increases other operating expenses to
support our business. We plan our operating expense levels based
primarily on forecasted revenue levels. Because these expenses are
relatively fixed in the short term, a shortfall in revenue could lead to
operating results being below expectations.
The results of operations for any quarter are not necessarily indicative
of results to be expected in future periods. Our operating results have
in the past been, and will continue to be, subject to quarterly
fluctuations as a result of a number of factors. These factors include:
- The integration of people, operations, and products from acquired
businesses and technologies
- Increased competition in the networking industry
- The overall trend toward industry consolidation
- The introduction and market acceptance of new technologies and
standards, including switch routers, Gigabit Ethernet switching, Tag
Switching (currently also known as multiprotocol label switching [MPLS])
and data, voice and video capabilities
- Variations in sales channels, product costs, or mix of products sold
- The timing of orders and manufacturing lead times
- The trend toward sales of integrated network solutions
- Changes in general economic conditions and specific economic conditions
in the computer and
networking industries
Any of these above factors could have a material adverse impact on our
operations and financial results. For example, we from time to time have
made acquisitions that result in purchased research and development
expenses being charged in an individual quarter. These charges may occur
in any particular quarter resulting in variability in our quarterly
earnings. Additionally, the dollar amounts of large orders for our
products have been increasing, and therefore the operating results for
a quarter could be materially adversely affected if a number of large
orders are either not received or are delayed, for example, due to
cancellations, delays, or deferrals by customers.
We are continuing to assess the impact of the year 2000 issue on our
current and future products, internal information systems, and
noninformation technology systems (equipment and systems) and has begun,
and in many cases completed, corrective efforts in these areas.
We are using a four-phased approach to address the issue:
- The first phase consists of the inventorying of all potential business
disruption problems, including those with products and systems, as well
as potential disruption from suppliers and other third parties.
- The second phase consists of the prioritization of all the potential
problems to allocate the appropriate level of resources to the most
critical areas.
- The third phase addresses the remediation programs to solve or mitigate
any identified year 2000 problems.
- The fourth phase consists of the development of contingency plans to
address potential year 2000 problems that may arise with Cisco, our
customers, and our suppliers.
We have largely completed the implementation of year 2000-compliant
internal computer applications for its main financial, manufacturing, and
order processing systems. The systems are being tested for compliance,
and we do not currently expect any significant issues to be identified
during this review. However, the failure of any internal system to
achieve year 2000 readiness could result in material disruption to our
operations.
We have also conducted extensive work regarding the status of our
currently available, developing, and installed base of products. We
believe that our current products are largely year 2000-compliant. There
can be no assurance that certain previous releases of our products that
are no longer under support will prove to be year 2000 compliant with
customers' systems or within an existing network. Further information
about our products is available on our Year 2000 Internet Web site. We
have developed programs for customers who have indicated a need to
upgrade components of their systems. However, the inability of any of our
products to properly manage and manipulate data in the year 2000 could
result in increased warranty costs, customer satisfaction issues,
potential lawsuits, and other material costs and liabilities.
We have completed phases I and II of our review of our supplier bases
and, in the third phase of the
compliance approach, are in the process of reviewing the state of
readiness of our supplier base. This exercise includes compliance
inquiries and reviews that will continue throughout calendar 1999. Where
issues are identified with a particular supplier, contingency plans will
be developed as discussed below. Even where assurances are received from
third parties there remains a risk that failure of systems and products
of other companies on which we rely could have a material adverse effect
on us. Further, if these suppliers fail to adequately address the year
2000 issue for the products they provide to us, critical materials,
products, and services may not be delivered in a timely manner and we may
not be able to manufacture sufficient product to meet sales demand.
Based on the work done to date, we have not incurred material costs and
do not expect to incur future material costs in the work to address the
year 2000 problem for our systems (as a result of relatively new legacy
information systems) and products.
We have taken and will continue to take corrective action to mitigate any
significant year 2000 problems with our systems and products and believe
that the year 2000 issue for information systems will not have a material
impact on our operations or financial results. However, there can be no
assurance that we will not experience significant business disruptions or
loss of business due to an inability to adequately address the year 2000
issue. We are concerned that many enterprises will be devoting a
substantial portion of their information systems spending to addressing
the year 2000 issue. This expense may result in spending being diverted
from networking solutions in the near future. This diversion of
information technology spending could have a material adverse impact on
our future sales volume.
Contingency plans are being developed in certain key areas, in particular
surrounding third-party manufacturers and other suppliers, to ensure that
any potential business interruptions caused by the year 2000 issue are
mitigated. Such contingency plans include identification of alternative
sources of supply and test exercises to ensure that such alternatives are
able to provide us with
an adequate level of support. These plans are being developed, refined,
and tested in the last six months of calendar 1999.
The foregoing statements are based upon our best estimates at the present
time, which were derived utilizing numerous assumptions of future events,
including the continued availability of certain resources, third-party
modification plans, and other factors. There can be no guarantee that
these estimates will be achieved and actual results could differ
materially from those anticipated. Specific factors that might cause such
material differences include, but are not limited to:
- The availability and cost of personnel trained in this area
- The ability to locate and correct all relevant computer codes
- The nature and amount of programming required to upgrade or replace
each of the affected programs
- The rate and magnitude of related labor and consulting costs and the
success of Cisco's external customers and suppliers in addressing the
year 2000 issue
Our evaluation is ongoing and we expect that new and different
information will become available to us as that evaluation continues.
Consequently, there is no guarantee that all material elements will be
year 2000-ready in time.
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