This forecast is part of the Cisco® Visual Networking Index (VNI), an ongoing initiative to track and forecast the impact of visual networking applications. This document presents the details of the Cisco VNI global IP traffic forecast and the methodology behind it. For a more analytical look at the implications of the data presented in this paper, please refer to the companion document, The Zettabyte Era-Trends and Analysis, or the VNI Forecast Highlights tool.
Executive Summary
Annual global IP traffic will surpass the zettabyte threshold (1.4 zettabytes) by the end of 2017. In 2017, global IP traffic will reach 1.4 zettabytes per year, or 120.6 exabytes per month. Global IP traffic will reach 1.0 zettabytes per year or 83.8 exabytes per month in 2015.
Global IP traffic has increased more than fourfold in the past 5 years, and will increase threefold over the next 5 years. Overall, IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23 percent from 2012 to 2017.
Busy hour Internet traffic is growing more rapidly than average Internet traffic. Busy hour Internet traffic increased 41 percent in 2012, compared to 34 percent growth in average traffic. Busy-hour Internet traffic will increase by a factor of 3.5 between 2012 and 2017, while average Internet traffic will increase 2.9-fold. Busy-hour Internet traffic will reach 865 Tbps in 2017, the equivalent of 720 million people streaming a high-definition video continuously.
Metro traffic will surpass long-haul traffic in 2014, and will account for 58 percent of total IP traffic by 2017. Metro traffic will grow nearly twice as fast as long-haul traffic from 2012 to 2017. The higher growth in metro networks is due in part to the increasingly significant role of content delivery networks, which bypass long-haul links and deliver traffic to metro and regional backbones.
Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) will carry over half of Internet traffic in 2017. 51 percent of all Internet traffic will cross content delivery networks in 2017 globally, up from 34 percent in 2012.
Nearly half of all IP traffic will originate with non-PC devices by 2017. In 2012, only 26 percent of consumer IP traffic originated with non-PC devices, but by 2017 the non-PC share of consumer IP traffic will grow to 49 percent. PC-originated traffic will grow at a CAGR of 14 percent, while TVs, tablets, mobile phones, and machine-to-machine (M2M) modules will have traffic growth rates of 24 percent, 104 percent, 79 percent, and 82 percent, respectively.
Traffic from wireless and mobile devices will exceed traffic from wired devices by 2016. By 2017, wired devices will account for 45 percent of IP traffic, while Wi-Fi and mobile devices will account for 55 percent of IP traffic. In 2012, wired devices accounted for the majority of IP traffic at 59 percent.
In 2017, the gigabyte equivalent of all movies ever made will cross global IP networks every 3 minutes. Global IP networks will deliver 13.8 petabytes every 5 minutes in 2017.
The number of devices connected to IP networks will be nearly three times as high as the global population in 2017. There will be nearly three networked devices per capita in 2017, up from nearly two networked devices per capita in 2012. Accelerated in part by the increase in devices and the capabilities of those devices, IP traffic per capita will reach 16 gigabytes per capita in 2017, up from 6 gigabytes per capita in 2012.
Video Highlights
It would take an individual over 5 million years to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks each month in 2017. Every second, nearly a million minutes of video content will cross the network in 2017.
Globally, consumer Internet video traffic will be 69 percent of all consumer Internet traffic in 2017, up from 57 percent in 2012. This percentage does not include video exchanged through peer-to-peer (P2P) file sharing. The sum of all forms of video (TV, video on demand [VoD], Internet, and P2P) will be in the range of 80 to 90 percent of global consumer traffic by 2017.
Internet video to TV doubled in 2012. Internet video to TV will continue to grow at a rapid pace, increasing fivefold by 2017. Internet video to TV traffic will be 14 percent of consumer Internet video traffic in 2017, up from 9 percent in 2012.
Video-on-demand traffic will nearly triple by 2017. The amount of VoD traffic in 2017 will be equivalent to 6 billion DVDs per month.
Content Delivery Network (CDN) traffic will deliver almost two-thirds of all video traffic by 2017. By 2017, 65 percent of all Internet video traffic will cross content delivery networks in 2017, up from 53 percent in 2012.
Mobile Highlights
Globally, mobile data traffic will increase 13-fold between 2012 and 2017. Mobile data traffic will grow at a CAGR of 66 percent between 2012 and 2017, reaching 11.2 exabytes per month by 2017.
Global mobile data traffic will grow three times faster than fixed IP traffic from 2012 to 2017. Global mobile data traffic was 2 percent of total IP traffic in 2012, and will be 9 percent of total IP traffic in 2017.
Regional Highlights
IP traffic is growing fastest in the Middle East and Africa, followed by Asia Pacific. Traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 38 percent between 2012 and 2017.
IP traffic in North America will reach 40.7 exabytes per month by 2017, at a CAGR of 23 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in North America will generate 7 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 26.3 exabytes per month.
IP traffic in Western Europe will reach 16.8 exabytes per month by 2017, at a CAGR of 17 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Western Europe will generate 3 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 13.6 exabytes per month.
IP traffic in Asia Pacific will reach 43.4 exabytes per month by 2017, at a CAGR of 26 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Asia Pacific will generate 9 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 35.8 exabytes per month.
IP traffic in Latin America will reach 7.4 exabytes per month by 2017, at a CAGR of 17 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Latin America will generate 2 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 6.7 exabytes per month.
IP traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will reach 8.8 exabytes per month by 2017, at a CAGR of 21 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will generate 2 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 7.4 exabytes per month.
IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will reach 3.5 exabytes per month by 2017, at a CAGR of 38 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in the Middle East and Africa will generate 789 million DVDs' worth of traffic, or 3.2 exabytes per month.
Global Business Highlights
Business IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 21 percent from 2012 to 2017. Increased adoption of advanced video communications in the enterprise segment will cause business IP traffic to grow by a factor of three between 2012 and 2017.
Business Internet traffic will grow at a faster pace than IP WAN. IP WAN will grow at a CAGR of 13 percent, compared to a CAGR of 21 percent for fixed business Internet and 59 percent for mobile business Internet.
Business IP traffic will grow fastest in the Middle East and Africa. Business IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 29 percent, a faster pace than the global average of 21 percent. In volume, Asia Pacific will have the largest amount of business IP traffic in 2017 at 8.3 exabytes per month. North America will be the second at 5.4 exabytes per month.
Overview of VNI Methodology
The Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast methodology rests on a combination of analyst projections, in-house estimates and forecasts, and direct data collection. The analyst projections for broadband connections, video subscribers, mobile connections, and Internet application adoption come from SNL Kagan, Ovum, Informa Telecoms & Media, Infonetics, IDC, Gartner, AMI, Arbitron Mobile, Ookla Speedtest.net, Strategy Analytics, Screen Digest, Dell'Oro Group, Synergy, comScore, Nielsen, and others. Upon this foundation are layered Cisco's own estimates for application adoption, minutes of use, and kilobytes per minute. The adoption, usage, and bitrate assumptions are tied to fundamental enablers such as broadband speed and computing speed. All usage and traffic results are then validated using data shared with Cisco from service providers. Figure 1 shows the forecast methodology.
Figure 1. Cisco VNI Forecast Methodology Incorporates Fundamental Enablers of Adoption and Usage
Following the methodology through each step for a single application category (in this case, Internet video) will illustrate the estimation process.
Step 1: Number of Users
The forecast for Internet video begins with estimations of the number of consumer fixed Internet users. Even such a basic measure as consumer fixed Internet users can be difficult to assess, because few analyst firms segment the number of users by both segment (consumer versus business) and network (mobile versus fixed). This year, the number of consumer fixed Internet users was not taken directly from an analyst source but was estimated from analyst forecasts for consumer broadband connections, data on hotspot users from a variety of government sources, and population forecasts by age segment. The number of Internet video users was collected and estimated from a variety of sources, and the numbers were then reconciled with the estimate of overall Internet users.
Step 2: Application Adoption
After the number of Internet video users has been established, the number of users for each video subsegment must be estimated. It was assumed that all Internet video users view short-form video in addition to other forms of video they may watch. On average 37 percent of Internet video users watch long-form content (based partially on comScore Video Metrix figures for video sites whose average viewing time is longer than 5 minutes), 23 percent watch some form of live content, 3 percent are ambient video watchers, and 4 percent are Internet personal video recorder (PVR) users. These figures are global averages; regional adoption rates for the application subsegments can vary significantly.
Step 3. Minutes of Use
For each application subsegment, minutes of use (MOU) are estimated. Multiple sources are used to determine MOU: the Cisco VNI Usage data collection program provides a minute-per-subscriber baseline for many applications, the Cisco Connected Life Market Watch survey provides MOU for markets that are not covered by the Usage program, and comScore Video Metrix provides PC-based MOU for online video. Special care is taken to ensure that the total number of Internet video minutes is well within the total number of video minutes (including television broadcast) for each user. For example, if the average individual watches a total of 4 hours of video content per day, the sum of Internet, managed IP, and mobile video hours should be a relatively small portion of the total 4 hours.
Step 4. Bitrates
After MOU have been estimated for each subsegment of video, the next step is to apply kilobytes (KB) per minute. To calculate kilobytes per minute, first the regional and country average broadband speeds are estimated for the years 2012 through 2017. For each application category, a representative bitrate is established, and this representative bitrate grows at approximately the same pace as the broadband speed. For video categories, a 7-percent annual compression gain is applied to the bitrate. Local bitrates are then calculated based on how much the average broadband speed in the country differs from the global average, digital screen size in the country, and the computing power of the average device in the country. Combining these factors yields bitrates that are then applied to the MOU.
Step 5: Rollup
The next step in the methodology is to multiply the bitrates, MOU, and users together to get average petabytes per month.
Step 6: Traffic Migration Assessment
The next step is to reconcile the Internet, managed IP, and mobile segments of the forecast. The portion of mobile data traffic that has migrated from the fixed network is subtracted from the fixed forecast, and the amount of mobile data traffic offloaded onto the fixed network through dual-mode devices and femtocells is added back to the fixed forecast.
The sections that follow present quantitative results of the forecast and details of the methodology for each segment and type.
Global IP Traffic Growth, 2012-2017
Table 1 shows the top-line forecast. According to this forecast, global IP traffic in 2012 stands at 43.6 exabytes per month and will grow threefold by 2017, to reach 120.6 exabytes per month. Consumer IP traffic will reach 98.9 exabytes per month and business IP traffic will surpass 21.7 exabytes per month.
Table 1. Global IP Traffic, 2012-2017
IP Traffic, 2012-2017
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
CAGR
2012-2017
By Type (PB per Month)
Fixed Internet
31,339
39,295
47,987
57,609
68,878
81,818
21%
Managed IP
11,346
14,679
18,107
21,523
24,740
27,668
20%
Mobile data
885
1,578
2,798
4,704
7,437
11,157
66%
By Segment (PB per Month)
Consumer
35,047
45,023
56,070
68,418
82,683
98,919
23%
Business
8,522
10,530
12,822
15,417
18,372
21,724
21%
By Geography (PB per Month)
Asia Pacific
13,906
18,121
22,953
28,667
35,417
43,445
26%
North America
14,439
18,788
23,520
28,667
34,457
40,672
23%
Western Europe
7,722
9,072
10,568
12,241
14,323
16,802
17%
Central and Eastern Europe
3,405
4,202
5,167
6,274
7,517
8,844
21%
Latin America
3,397
4,321
5,201
5,975
6,682
7,415
17%
Middle East and Africa
701
1,049
1,483
2,013
2,659
3,465
38%
Total (PB per Month)
Total IP traffic
43,570
55,553
68,892
83,835
101,055
120,643
23%
Source: Cisco VNI, 2013
Definitions
• Consumer: Includes fixed IP traffic generated by households, university populations, and Internet cafés
• Business: Includes fixed IP WAN or Internet traffic generated by businesses and governments
• Mobile: Includes mobile data and Internet traffic generated by handsets, notebook cards, and mobile broadband gateways
• Internet: Denotes all IP traffic that crosses an Internet backbone
• Managed IP: Includes corporate IP WAN traffic and IP transport of TV and VoD
The following tables show cross-tabulations of end-user segment and network type for the final year of the forecast period (2017). Consumer Internet remains the primary generator of IP traffic, but mobile data has the highest growth rate and begins to generate significant traffic by 2017 (Table 2).
Table 2. Exabytes per Month as of Year End 2017
Consumer
Business
Total
Internet
66.8
15.0
81.8
Managed IP
22.9
4.7
27.7
Mobile data
9.1
2.0
11.2
Total
98.8
21.7
120.7
Source: Cisco VNI, 2013
Table 3 shows the same data as Table 2, but in terms of annual traffic run rates. These run rates are based on the monthly traffic at the end of 2017.
Table 3. Exabytes per Year as of Year End 2017
Consumer
Business
Total
Internet
802.1
179.7
981.8
Managed IP
275.4
56.7
332.0
Mobile data
109.6
24.3
133.9
Total
1,187.1
260.7
1,447.7
Source: Cisco VNI, 2013
Consumer and business traffic are both dominated by Internet traffic, although business traffic is more evenly distributed across public Internet and managed IP (Table 4).
Table 4. Traffic Share by End-User Segment as of Year End 2017
Consumer
Business
Internet
68%
69%
Managed IP
23%
22%
Mobile data
9%
9%
Total
100%
100%
Source: Cisco VNI, 2013
Consumer traffic accounts for the majority of IP traffic in every network type segment. Consumer traffic will be 91 percent of all Internet traffic, 77 percent of all mobile data traffic, and 80 percent of managed IP traffic (Table 5).
Table 5. Traffic Share by Network Type as of Year End 2017
Consumer
Business
Total
Internet
82%
18%
100%
Managed IP
83%
17%
100%
Mobile data
82%
18%
100%
Source: Cisco VNI, 2013
Consumer Internet traffic will represent two-thirds of all IP traffic, followed by consumer managed IP (VoD), which represents 13 percent of traffic (Table 6).
Table 6. Overall Traffic Share as of Year End 2017
Consumer
Business
Total
Internet
55%
12%
68%
Managed IP
19%
4%
23%
Mobile data
8%
2%
9%
Total
82%
18%
100%
Source: Cisco VNI, 2013
Metro and Long Haul Traffic, 2012-2017
Metro-only traffic (traffic that traverses only the metro and bypasses long-haul traffic links) will surpass long-haul traffic in 2014, and will account for 58% of total IP traffic by 2017. Metro-only traffic will grow nearly twice as fast as long-haul traffic from 2012 to 2017 (Table 7).
Table 7. Metro and Long-Haul Traffic, 2012-2017
Metro and Long-Haul Traffic, 2012-2017
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
CAGR
2012-2017
Metro-Only (PB per Month)
North America
10,188
13,797
18,193
23,038
28,732
35,225
28%
Asia Pacific
4,392
5,956
7,965
10,623
13,882
17,781
32%
Western Europe
3,860
4,842
6,131
7,594
9,443
11,714
25%
Central and Eastern Europe
603
842
1,185
1,691
2,310
3,040
38%
Latin America
571
761
983
1,280
1,582
1,922
27%
Middle East and Africa
84
121
166
225
297
387
36%
Long-Haul (PB per Month)
Asia Pacific
9,513
12,164
14,988
18,044
21,535
25,664
22%
Central and Eastern Europe
2,802
3,360
3,982
4,583
5,207
5,804
16%
Latin America
2,826
3,560
4,218
4,695
5,099
5,492
14%
North America
4,251
4,991
5,326
5,628
5,725
5,447
5%
Western Europe
3,862
4,230
4,437
4,647
4,880
5,088
6%
Middle East and Africa
617
928
1,317
1,787
2,362
3,077
38%
Total (PB per Month)
Total IP traffic
43,570
55,553
68,892
83,835
101,055
120,643
23%
Source: Cisco VNI, 2013
Content Delivery Network Traffic, 2012-2017
With the emergence of popular video-streaming services that deliver Internet video to the TV and other device endpoints, CDNs have prevailed as a dominant method to deliver such content. Globally, 51% of all Internet traffic will cross content delivery networks in 2017, up from 34% in 2012. Globally, 65 percent of all Internet video traffic will cross content delivery networks in 2017, up from 53 percent in 2012 (Table 8).
Table 8. Global Content Delivery Network Internet Traffic, 2012-2017
CDN Traffic, 2012-2017
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
CAGR
2012-2017
By Geography (PB per Month)
North America
4,630
6,484
9,127
12,349
16,581
21,766
36%
Asia Pacific
2,468
3,347
4,617
6,444
8,876
12,065
37%
Western Europe
2,792
3,517
4,542
5,723
7,298
9,323
27%
Central and Eastern Europe
437
586
809
1,163
1,611
2,150
38%
Latin America
465
597
747
967
1,204
1,470
26%
Middle East and Africa
71
103
142
197
265
351
38%
Total (PB per Month)
CDN Internet traffic
10,863
14,633
19,984
26,842
35,834
47,124
34%
Source: Cisco VNI, 2013
Consumer IP Traffic, 2012-2017
As shown in Table 9, global consumer IP traffic is expected to reach 98.9 exabytes per month in 2017. Most of today's consumer IP traffic is Internet traffic.
Table 9. Global Consumer IP Traffic, 2012-2017
Consumer IP Traffic, 2012-2017
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
CAGR
2012-2017
By Type (PB per Month)
Internet
25,529
32,097
39,206
47,035
56,243
66,842
21%
Managed IP
8,835
11,686
14,640
17,609
20,414
22,946
21%
Mobile data
684
1,239
2,223
3,774
6,026
9,131
68%
By Geography (PB per Month)
North America
12,392
16,237
20,378
24,876
29,891
35,223
23%
Asia Pacific
10,957
14,363
18,236
22,887
28,465
35,156
26%
Western Europe
6,153
7,204
8,394
9,681
11,342
13,344
17%
Central and Eastern Europe
2,360
3,013
3,809
4,710
5,714
6,787
24%
Latin America
2,763
3,547
4,285
4,902
5,423
5,939
17%
Middle East and Africa
423
658
968
1,362
1,848
2,469
42%
Total (PB per Month)
Consumer IP traffic
35,047
45,023
56,070
68,418
82,683
98,919
23%
Source: Cisco VNI, 2013
Consumer Internet Traffic, 2012-2017
This category encompasses any IP traffic that crosses the Internet and is not confined to a single service provider's network. Internet video streaming and downloads are beginning to take a larger share of bandwidth and will grow to more than 69 percent of all consumer Internet traffic in 2017 (Table 10).
Table 10. Global Consumer Internet Traffic, 2012-2017
Consumer Internet Traffic, 2012-2017
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
CAGR
2012-2017
By Network (PB per Month)
Fixed
25,529
32,097
39,206
47,035
56,243
66,842
21%
Mobile
684
1,239
2,223
3,774
6,026
9,131
68%
By Subsegment (PB per Month)
Internet video
14,818
19,855
25,800
32,962
41,916
52,752
29%
Web, email, and data
5,173
6,336
7,781
9,542
11,828
14,494
23%
File sharing
6,201
7,119
7,816
8,266
8,478
8,667
7%
Online gaming
22
26
32
39
48
59
22%
By Geography (PB per Month)
Asia Pacific
9,033
11,754
14,887
18,707
23,458
29,440
27%
North America
6,834
8,924
11,312
14,188
17,740
21,764
26%
Western Europe
5,086
5,880
6,804
7,810
9,197
10,953
17%
Central and Eastern Europe
2,194
2,757
3,433
4,182
5,015
5,897
22%
Latin America
2,656
3,382
4,049
4,588
5,045
5,487
16%
Middle East and Africa
410
640
944
1,334
1,816
2,432
43%
Total (PB per Month)
Consumer Internet traffic
26,213
33,337
41,429
50,809
62,269
75,973
24%
Source: Cisco VNI, 2013
Definitions
• Web, email, and data: Includes web, email, instant messaging, and other data traffic (excludes file sharing)
• File sharing: Includes peer-to-peer traffic from all recognized P2P systems such as BitTorrent and eDonkey, as well as traffic from web-based file-sharing systems
• Gaming: Includes casual online gaming, networked console gaming, and multiplayer virtual-world gaming
• Internet video: Includes short-form Internet video (for example, YouTube), long-form Internet video (for example, Hulu), live Internet video, Internet-video-to-TV (for example, Netflix through Roku), online video purchases and rentals, webcam viewing, and web-based video monitoring (excludes P2P video file downloads)
Web, Email, and Data
This general category encompasses web browsing, email, instant messaging, data (which includes file transfer using HTTP and FTP) and other Internet applications (Table 11). Note that data may include the download of video files that are not captured by the Internet video to PC forecast. This category includes traffic generated by all individual Internet users. An Internet user is here defined as someone who accesses the Internet through a desktop or laptop computer at home, school, Internet café, or other location outside the context of a business.
Table 11. Global Consumer Web, Email, and Data Traffic, 2012-2017
Consumer Web, Email, and Data Traffic, 2012-2017
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
CAGR
2012-2017
By Network (PB per Month)
Fixed web and data
4,851
5,762
6,782
7,921
9,366
10,960
18%
Mobile web and data
321
574
999
1,621
2,462
3,534
62%
By Geography (PB per Month)
Asia Pacific
1,711
2,231
2,925
3,798
4,898
6,261
30%
North America
1,452
1,882
2,387
2,995
3,715
4,534
26%
Western Europe
1,144
1,224
1,330
1,456
1,652
1,883
10%
Central and Eastern Europe
299
323
359
415
554
654
17%
Middle East and Africa
84
138
217
321
446
586
48%
Latin America
483
538
562
556
562
575
4%
Total (PB per Month)
Consumer web, email, and data
5,173
6,336
7,781
9,542
11,828
14,494
23%
Source: Cisco VNI, 2013
File Sharing
This category includes traffic from P2P applications such as BitTorrent and eDonkey, as well as web-based file sharing. Note that a large portion of P2P traffic is due to the exchange of video files, so a total view of the impact of video on the network should count P2P video traffic in addition to the traffic counted in the Internet video to PC and Internet video to TV categories. Table 12 shows the forecast for consumer P2P traffic from 2012 to 2017. Note that the P2P category is limited to traditional file exchange and does not include commercial video-streaming applications that are delivered through P2P, such as PPStream or PPLive.
Table 12. Global Consumer File-Sharing Traffic, 2012-2017
Consumer File Sharing, 2011-2016
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
CAGR
2012-2017
By Network (PB per Month)
Fixed
6,155
7,060
7,738
8,159
8,343
8,506
7%
Mobile
45
59
78
107
135
161
29%
By Subsegment (PB per Month)
P2P file transfer
5,374,262
5,981,677
6,330,010
6,404,161
6,199,877
5,893,411
2%
Other file transfer
826,343
1,137,158
1,486,266
1,861,915
2,277,919
2,773,901
27%
By Geography (PB per Month)
Asia Pacific
2,358
2,801
3,156
3,440
3,655
3,857
10%
Central and Eastern Europe
911
1,079
1,242
1,374
1,427
1,494
10%
North America
829
982
1,090
1,173
1,244
1,302
9%
Western Europe
1,350
1,367
1,360
1,305
1,255
1,235
-2%
Latin America
666
782
850
862
807
725
2%
Middle East and Africa
88
108
118
112
89
53
-10%
Total (PB per Month)
Consumer file sharing
6,201
7,119
7,816
8,266
8,478
8,667
7%
Source: Cisco VNI, 2013
Internet Video
With the exception of the Internet video to TV subcategory, all of the Internet video subcategories consist of online video that is downloaded or streamed for viewing on a PC screen (Table 13). Internet video to TV is Internet delivery of video to a TV screen through a set-top box (STB) or equivalent device. Much of the video streamed or downloaded through the Internet consists of free clips, episodes, and other content offered by traditional content producers such as movie studios and television networks.
Table 13. Global Consumer Internet Video, 2012-2017
Consumer Internet Video 2012-2017
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
CAGR
2012-2017
By Network (PB per Month)
Fixed
10,230
16,430
19,980
24,994
31,722
40,532
32%
Mobile
193
450
924
1,729
3,033
4,749
90%
By Category (PB per Month)
Video
13,483
17,850
22,950
29,050
36,742
46,237
28%
Internet video to TV
1,335
2,005
2,851
3,913
5,174
6,515
37%
By Geography (PB per Month)
Asia Pacific
4,960
6,716
8,800
11,460
14,894
19,309
31%
North America
4,545
6,049
7,822
10,004
12,761
15,905
28%
Western Europe
2,584
3,280
4,103
5,036
6,273
7,813
25%
Latin America
1,507
2,062
2,634
3,169
3,674
4,184
23%
Central and Eastern Europe
984
1,355
1,832
2,392
3,034
3,749
31%
Middle East and Africa
238
393
609
901
1,280
1,793
50%
Total (PB per Month)
Consumer Internet video
14,818
19,855
25,800
32,962
41,916
52,752
29%
Source: Cisco VNI, 2013
Definitions
• Internet video to TV: Video delivered through the Internet to a TV screen by way of an Internet-enabled set-top box (for example, Roku) or equivalent device (for example, Microsoft Xbox 360), Internet-enabled TV, or PC-to-TV connection
• Video: Video comprises the following underlying categories:
– Short form: User-generated video and other video clips generally less than 7 minutes in length
– Video calling: Video messages or calling delivered on fixed Internet initiated by smartphones, non-smartphones, and tablets
– Long form: Video content generally greater than 7 minutes in length
– Live Internet TV: Peer-to-peer TV (excluding P2P video downloads) and live television streaming over the Internet
– Internet PVR: Recording of live TV content for later viewing
– Ambient video: Nannycams, petcams, home security cams, and other persistent video streams
– Mobile video: All video that travels over a second-generation (2G), 3G, or 4G network
Consumer Managed IP Traffic, 2012-2017
Managed IP video is IP traffic generated by traditional commercial TV services (Table 14). This traffic remains within the footprint of a single service provider, so it is not considered Internet traffic. (For Internet video delivered to the set-top box, see Internet video to TV in the previous section.)
Table 14. Global Consumer Managed IP Traffic, 2012-2017
Consumer Managed IP Traffic, 2011-2016
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
CAGR
2012-2017
By Network (PB per Month)
Fixed
8,835
11,686
14,640
17,609
20,414
22,946
21%
By Geography (PB per Month)
North America
5,558
7,313
9,066
10,689
12,151
13,459
19%
Western Europe
1,068
1,324
1,590
1,871
2,145
2,392
18%
Asia Pacific
1,924
2,609
3,348
4,180
5,006
5,717
24%
Latin America
106
165
237
313
379
452
34%
Central and Eastern Europe
165
257
376
528
699
890
40%
Middle East and Africa
13
18
24
28
33
37
23%
Total (PB per Month)
Managed IP video traffic
8,835
11,686
14,640
17,609
20,414
22,946
21%
Source: Cisco VNI, 2013
Business IP Traffic
The enterprise forecast is based on the number of network-connected computers worldwide. In our experience, this basis provides the most accurate measure of enterprise data usage. An average business user might generate 4 GB per month of Internet and WAN traffic. A large-enterprise user would generate significantly more traffic, 8-10 GB per month (Table 15).
Table 15. Business IP Traffic, 2012-2017
Business IP Traffic, 2012-2017
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
CAGR
2012-2017
By Network Type (PB per Month)
Business Internet traffic
5,809
7,198
8,781
10,573
12,635
14,976
21%
Business managed IP traffic
2,512
2,993
3,466
3,914
4,326
4,722
13%
Business mobile data
201
339
575
930
1,411
2,026
59%
By Geography (PB per Month)
Asia Pacific
2,949
3,758
4,718
5,780
6,952
8,289
23%
North America
2,047
2,551
3,141
3,790
4,566
5,449
22%
Western Europe
1,568
1,868
2,174
2,559
2,981
3,458
17%
Central and Eastern Europe
1,045
1,189
1,358
1,564
1,803
2,057
14%
Latin America
635
774
916
1,073
1,258
1,476
18%
Middle East and Africa
278
391
516
651
811
995
29%
Total (PB per Month)
Business IP traffic
8,522
10,530
12,822
15,417
18,372
21,724
21%
Source: Cisco VNI, 2013
Definitions
• Business Internet traffic: All business traffic that crosses the public Internet
• Business managed IP traffic: All business traffic that is transported over IP but remains within the corporate WAN
• Business mobile data traffic: All business traffic that crosses a mobile access point
Mobile Data Traffic
Mobile data traffic includes handset-based data traffic, such as text messaging, multimedia messaging, and handset video services (Table 16). Mobile Internet traffic is generated by wireless cards for portable computers and handset-based mobile Internet usage.
Table 16. Mobile Data and Internet Traffic, 2012-2017
