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VNI Service Adoption Forecast

Cisco Visual Networking Index Service Adoption Forecast Q&A: 2012–2017

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May 29, 2013
Q. What is the Cisco ® Visual Networking Index (VNI) Service Adoption Forecast, and what is the relevance of the data it provides?
A. The Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast projects the global and regional adoption rates of select residential, consumer mobile, and business services and applications, as well as the underlying addressable markets (subscribers and users) and relevant devices and connections that support the projections. This study includes forward-looking estimates of the penetration rates for 27 select end-user applications and services in three primary user categories: residential, consumer mobile, and business.
Q. How does the Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast relate to other Cisco thought-leadership programs?
A. The Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast is closely aligned with the Cisco Visual Networking Index fixed and mobile IP traffic forecasts, which focus on global network bandwidth consumption, and the Cisco Global Cloud Index (GCI), which forecasts cloud-based IP traffic growth. Both the service adoption and traffic studies are based on the same global and regional estimates for population, network users and subscribers, and devices and connections.
Q. What are the criteria for selecting services included in the Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast?
A. The Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast projects the global and regional adoption of 27 advanced services across three categories: residential, consumer mobile, and business. The services selected represent a range of end-user applications, from highly penetrated services, such as consumer short message service (SMS), to high-growth next-generation services such as business room-based videoconferencing and mobile commerce.
Q. What methodology and data sources are used for the Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast?
A. The Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast follows a rigorous methodology to estimate and forecast advanced service and device adoption by end users around the world. The research makes use of a variety of data sources:

• Publicly available data from international and national institutions, such as the United Nations Department of Population, U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and national census bureaus

• Regulatory and government reports from ministries of information, such as the China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC), Brazilian Network Information Center (NIC.br), Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA), and Office of Communications (OfCom)

• Independent research and survey data from respected research firms, such as AMI, Arbitron, Informa, IDC, Gartner, Screen Digest, Strategy Analytics, SNL Kagan, Media Partners Asia, Nielsen, Machina, comScore, Ovum, and Wainhouse Research

Cisco VNI analysts have developed and applied extensive data modeling techniques to analyze both supply-side data, such as shipments of technology products, and demand-side data, such as user adoption and preferences. This approach provides a consistent and reliable means for predicting how global and regional populations, addressable markets, devices and connections, and service adoption rates will grow over the forecast period.

Q. Why does the Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast include devices and connections forecast data?
A. An important influence on services adoption is the global proliferation of devices and connections across mobile and fixed networks, as well as across consumer and business segments. Providing devices and connections forecast data helps promote the understanding of market trends that influence services adoption growth.
Q. Were any changes made to the basic assumptions or significant service adoption influences in the latest forecast update?
A. In one area, independent data sources were revised and restructured in the Cisco VNI regional distribution of Internet users. Specifically, Turkey was moved from the Middle East and Africa Region to the Central and Eastern Europe region. This change effectively reduced the current and projected number of users in the Middle East and Africa, while increasing that current and future category for Central and Eastern Europe.

Also, as reported in the February 2013 VNI Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, the slowed growth of PC and laptop devices (particularly in Western Europe and North America) led to a reduction in the global and regional device projections. Business desktops and consumer desktops and laptops, in particular, are experiencing negative growth rates. Conversely, tablets continue to be among the fastest growing device types in each region (but not at a rate that directly replaces the slowed or decreased rate of PC and laptop devices).

Q. What other Cisco VNI Services Adoption Forecast resources are available?
A. A number of tools are available for exploring Cisco VNI Services Adoption Forecast data in more detail. These include:

Highlights tool: Learn more about the main population, service adoption, and device trends across regions.

Graphing tool: Create custom visualizations of Cisco VNI Service Adoption data to export for articles and reports.

Infographics: Review content depicting global and regional services adoption, as well as devices and connections data.

Services gauge: Compare bandwidth requirements of select advanced services.

Case studies: See how global service providers are delivering innovative services in their unique markets.

Q. Can my organization or I use or publish Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast data?
A. Yes. Cisco welcomes and encourages press, analysts, service providers, regulators, and other interested parties, whether business or academic, to use and reference our research. We do require that proper Cisco attribution be given for any and all Cisco VNI data that is published or shared in private or public print and electronic forms (for example, Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index [or VNI] Service Adoption Forecast, 2012-2017).
Q. How can I ask questions about the Cisco VNI Services Adoption Forecast?
A. Please send any questions to ask-vnisa@cisco.com.