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Visual Networking Index (VNI)

Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast and Methodology, 2013–2018

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June 10, 2014

This forecast is part of the Cisco® Visual Networking Index (VNI), an ongoing initiative to track and forecast the impact of visual networking applications. This document presents the details of the Cisco VNI global IP traffic forecast and the methodology behind it. For a more analytical look at the implications of the data presented in this paper, refer to the companion document, The Zettabyte Era—Trends and Analysis, or the VNI Forecast Highlights tool.

Executive Summary

Annual global IP traffic will surpass the zettabyte (1000 exabytes) threshold in 2016. Global IP traffic willreach 1.1zettabytes per year or 91.3 exabytes (one billion gigabytes) per month in 2016. By 2018, global IPtrafficwill reach 1.6 zettabytes per year, or 131.6 exabytes per month.

Global IP traffic has increased more than fivefold in the past 5 years, and will increase threefold over thenext 5years. Overall, IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21 percent from 2013to2018.

Busy-hour Internet traffic is growing more rapidly than average Internet traffic. Busy-hour (or the busiest 60‑minute period in a day) Internet traffic increased 32 percent in 2013, compared with 25 percent growth in average traffic. Busy-hour Internet traffic will increase by a factor of 3.4 between 2013 and 2018, while average Internet traffic will increase 2.8-fold. Busy-hour Internet traffic will reach 1.0 petabits per second (Pbps) by 2018, the equivalent of 335 million people streaming a high-definition (HD) videocontinuously.

Metro traffic will surpass long-haul traffic in 2015, and will account for 62 percent of total IP traffic by 2018. Metro traffic will grow nearly twice as fast as long-haul traffic from 2013 to 2018. The higher growth in metro networks is due in part to the increasingly significant role of content delivery networks, which bypass long-haul linksand deliver traffic to metro and regional backbones.

Content delivery networks will carry over half of Internet traffic by 2018. Fifty-five percent of all Internet traffic will cross content delivery networks by 2018 globally, up from 36 percent in 2013. Global IP traffic will reach 1.1zettabytes per year or 91.3 exabytes per month in 2016.

Over half of all IP traffic will originate with non-PC devices by 2018. In 2013, only 33 percent of total IPtraffic originated with non-PC devices, but by 2018 the non-PC share of total IP traffic will grow to57percent. PC-originated traffic will grow at a CAGR of 10 percent, while TVs, tablets, smartphones, andmachine-to-machine (M2M) modules will have traffic growth rates of 35 percent, 74 percent, 64 percent, and84percent, respectively.

Traffic from wireless and mobile devices will exceed traffic from wired devices by 2018. By 2018, wired devices will account for 39 percent of IP traffic, while Wi-Fi and mobile devices will account for 61 percent of IPtraffic. In 2013, wired devices accounted for the majority of IP traffic at 56 percent.

Global Internet traffic in 2018 will be equivalent to 64 times the volume of the entire global Internet in 2005. Globally, Internet traffic will reach 14 gigabytes (GB) per capita by 2018, up from 5 GB per capita in 2013.

The number of devices connected to IP networks will be nearly twice as high as the global population in 2018. There will be nearly three networked devices per capita by 2018, up from nearly two networked devices per capita in 2013. Accelerated in part by the increase in devices and the capabilities of those devices, IP traffic per capita will reach 17 GB per capita by 2018, up from 7 GB per capita in 2013.

Broadband speeds will nearly triple by 2018. By 2018, global fixed broadband speeds will reach 42 Mbps, upfrom 16 Mbps in 2013.

Video Highlights

It would take an individual over 5 million years to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks each month in2018. Every second, nearly a million minutes of video content will cross the network by2018.

Globally, IP video traffic will be 79 percent of all consumer Internet traffic in 2018, up from66 percent in 2013. This percentage does not include video exchanged through peer-to-peer (P2P) filesharing. The sum of all forms of video (TV, video on demand [VoD], Internet, and P2P) will be in the range of80to 90 percent ofglobal consumer traffic by 2018.

Internet video to TV doubled in 2013. Internet video to TV will continue to grow at a rapid pace, increasing fourfold by 2018. Internet video to TV traffic will be 14 percent of consumer Internet video traffic by 2018, up from11percent in 2013.

Consumer VoD traffic will double by 2018. The amount of VoD traffic by 2018 will be equivalent to 6billion DVDs per month.

Content delivery network traffic will deliver over half of all internet video traffic by 2018. By 2018, 67percent of all Internet video traffic will cross content delivery networks, up from 53 percent in 2013.

Mobile Highlights

Globally, mobile data traffic will increase 11-fold between 2013 and 2018. Mobile data traffic will grow at a CAGR of 61 percent between 2013 and 2018, reaching 15.9 exabytes per month by 2018.

Global mobile data traffic will grow three times faster than fixed IP traffic from 2013 to 2018. Global mobile data traffic was 3 percent of total IP traffic in 2013, and will be 12 percent of total IP traffic by 2018.

Regional Highlights

IP traffic is growing fastest in the Middle East and Africa, followed by Asia Pacific. Traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 38 percent between 2013 and 2018.

IP traffic in North America will reach 40.5 exabytes per month by 2018, at a CAGR of 20 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in North America will generate 7 billion DVDs’ worth of traffic, or 26.4 exabytes per month.

IP traffic in Western Europe will reach 19.3 exabytes per month by 2018, at a CAGR of 18 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Western Europe will generate 4 billion DVDs’ worth of traffic, or 15.7 exabytes per month.

IP traffic in Asia Pacific will reach 47.3 exabytes per month by 2018, at a CAGR of 21 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Asia Pacific will generate 10 billion DVDs’ worth of traffic, or 38.3 exabytes per month.

IP traffic in Latin America will reach 8.9 exabytes per month by 2018, at a CAGR of 21 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Latin America will generate 2 billion DVDs’ worth of traffic, or 7.8 exabytes per month.

IP traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will reach 10.2 exabytes per month by 2018, at a CAGR of 23percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will generate 2 billion DVDs’ worth of traffic, or9.1exabytes per month.

IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will reach 5.3 exabytes per month by 2018, at a CAGR of 38 percent. MonthlyInternet traffic in the Middle East and Africa will generate 1 billion DVDs’ worth of traffic, or 4.9 exabytes per month.

Global Business Highlights

Business IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 18 percent from 2013 to 2018. Increased adoption of advanced video communications in the enterprise segment will cause business IP traffic to grow by a factor of two between 2013 and2018.

Business Internet traffic will grow at a faster pace than IP WAN. IP WAN will grow at a CAGR of 10 percent, compared with a CAGR of 21 percent for fixed business Internet and 55 percent for mobile business Internet.

Business IP traffic will grow fastest in the Middle East and Africa. Business IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 23 percent, a faster pace than the global average of 18 percent. In volume, Asia Pacific will have the largest amount of business IP traffic in 2018, at 8.5 exabytes per month. North America willbethe second at 6.2 exabytes per month.

Overview of VNI Methodology

The Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast methodology rests on a combination of analyst projections, in-house estimates and forecasts, and direct data collection. The analyst projections for broadband connections, video subscribers, mobile connections, and Internet application adoption come from SNL Kagan, Ovum, Informa Telecoms & Media, Infonetics, IDC, Gartner, AMI, Arbitron Mobile, Ookla Speedtest.net, Strategy Analytics, ScreenDigest, Dell’Oro Group, Synergy, comScore, Nielsen, and others. Upon this foundation are layered Cisco’sown estimates for application adoption, minutes of use, and kilobytes per minute. The adoption, usage, andbitrate assumptions are tied to fundamental enablers such as broadband speed and computing speed. Allusage and traffic results are then validated using data shared with Cisco from service providers. Figure 1 showsthe forecast methodology.

Figure 1. Cisco VNI Forecast Methodology Incorporates Fundamental Enablers of Adoption and Usage

Following the methodology through each step for a single application category (in this case, Internet video) illustrates the estimation process.

Step 1: Number of Users

The forecast for Internet video begins with estimations of the number of consumer fixed Internet users. Even such a basic measure as consumer fixed Internet users can be difficult to assess, because few analyst firms segment the number of users by both segment (consumer versus business) and network (mobile versus fixed). This year, thenumber of consumer fixed Internet users was not taken directly from an analyst source but was estimated fromanalyst forecasts for consumer broadband connections, data on hotspot users from a variety of government sources, and population forecasts by age segment. The number of Internet video users was collected and estimated from a variety of sources, and the numbers were then reconciled with the estimate of overall Internetusers.

Step 2: Application Adoption

After the number of Internet video users has been established, the number of users for each video subsegment must be estimated. It was assumed that all Internet video users view short-form video in addition to other forms ofvideo they may watch. The Internet video users that watch long form video (based partially on comScore VideoMetrix figures for video sites whose average viewing time is longer than 5 minutes), live video, ambient videoand Internet personal video recorder (PVR) is estimated.

Step 3. Minutes of Use

For each application subsegment, minutes of use (MOU) are estimated. Multiple sources are used to determine MOU: the Cisco VNI Usage data collection program provides a minute-per-subscriber baseline for many applications, the Cisco Connected Life Market Watch survey provides MOU for markets that are not covered by theUsage program, and comScore Video Metrix provides PC-based MOU for online video. Special care is taken tohelp ensure thatthe total number of Internet video minutes is well within the total number of video minutes (including television broadcast) for each user. For example, if the average individual watches a total of 4 hours ofvideo content per day, the sum of Internet, managed IP, and mobile video hours should be a relatively small portion ofthe total 4 hours.

Step 4. Bitrates

After MOU have been estimated for each subsegment of video, the next step is to apply kilobytes (KB) per minute.To calculate KB per minute, first the regional and country average broadband speeds are estimated fortheyears 2013 through 2018. For each application category, a representative bitrate is established, and this representative bitrate grows at approximately the same pace as the broadband speed. For video categories, a 7‑percent annual compression gain is applied to the bitrate. Local bitrates are then calculated based on how much the average broadband speed in the country differs from the global average, digital screen size in the country, and the computing power of the average device in the country. Combining these factors yields bitrates that are then applied to the MOU.

Step 5: Rollup

The next step in the methodology is to multiply the bitrates, MOU, and users together to get average petabytespermonth.

Step 6: Traffic Migration Assessment

The next step is to reconcile the Internet, managed IP, and mobile segments of the forecast. The portion of mobiledata traffic that has migrated from the fixed network is subtracted from the fixed forecast, and the amount ofmobile data traffic offloaded onto the fixed network through dual-mode devices and femtocells is added back tothe fixed forecast.

Thesections that follow present quantitative results of the forecast and details of the methodology for each segment and type.

Global IP Traffic Growth, 2013–2018

Table 1 shows the top-line forecast. According to this forecast, global IP traffic in 2013 stands at 51.2 exabytes permonth and will nearly triple by 2018, to reach 131.6 exabytes per month. Consumer IP traffic will reach 108exabytes per month and business IP traffic will surpass 23.6 exabytes per month.

Table 1. Global IP Traffic, 2013–2018

IP Traffic, 2013–2018

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR
2013–2018

By Type (Petabytes [PB] per Month)

Fixed Internet

34,952

42,119

50,504

60,540

72,557

86,409

20%

Managed IP

14,736

17,774

20,898

23,738

26,361

29,305

15%

Mobile data

1,480

2,582

4,337

6,981

10,788

15,838

61%

By Segment (PB per Month)

Consumer

40,905

50,375

61,439

74,361

89,689

107,958

21%

Business

10,263

12,100

14,300

16,899

20,016

23,595

18%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

17,950

22,119

26,869

32,383

39,086

47,273

21%

North America

16,607

20,293

24,599

29,377

34,552

40,545

20%

Western Europe

8,396

9,739

11,336

13,443

16,051

19,257

18%

Central and Eastern Europe

3,654

4,416

5,443

6,666

8,332

10,223

23%

Latin America

3,488

4,361

5,318

6,363

7,576

8,931

21%

Middle East and Africa

1,074

1,546

2,174

3,027

4,108

5,324

38%

Total (PB per Month)

Total IP traffic

51,168

62,476

75,739

91,260

109,705

131,553

21%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2014

Definitions

Consumer: Includes fixed IP traffic generated by households, university populations, and Internet cafés

Business: Includes fixed IP WAN or Internet traffic generated by businesses and governments

Mobile: Includes mobile data and Internet traffic generated by handsets, notebook cards, and mobile broadbandgateways

Internet: Denotes all IP traffic that crosses an Internet backbone

Managed IP: Includes corporate IP WAN traffic and IP transport of TV and VoD

The following tables show cross-tabulations of end-user segment and network type for the final year of the forecastperiod (2018). Consumer Internet remains the primary generator of IP traffic, but mobile data has thehighest growth rate and begins to generate significant traffic by 2018 (Table 2).

Table 2. Exabytes per Month as of Year End 2018

Consumer

Business

Total

Internet

70

16

86

Managed IP

25

5

29

Mobile data

13

3

16

Total

108

24

132

Source: Cisco VNI, 2014

Table 3 shows the same data as Table 2, but in terms of annual traffic run rates. These run rates are based on themonthly traffic at the end of 2018.

Table 3. Exabytes per Year as of Year End 2018

Consumer

Business

Total

Internet

841

196

1,037

Managed IP

296

56

352

Mobile data

159

31

190

Total

1,295

283

1,579

Source: Cisco VNI, 2014

Consumer and business traffic are both dominated by Internet traffic, although business traffic is more evenly distributed across public Internet and managed IP (Table 4).

Table 4. Traffic Share by End-User Segment as of Year End 2018

Consumer

Business

Internet

65%

69%

Managed IP

23%

20%

Mobile data

12%

11%

Total

100%

100%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2014

Consumer traffic accounts for the majority of IP traffic in every network type segment. Consumer traffic will be 81percent of all Internet traffic, 84 percent of all of managed IP traffic, and 84 percent of all mobile data traffic (Table 5).

Table 5. Traffic Share by Network Type as of Year End 2018

Consumer

Business

Total

Internet

81%

19%

100%

Managed IP

84%

16%

100%

Mobile data

84%

16%

100%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2014

Consumer Internet traffic will represent over half of all IP traffic, followed by consumer managed IP (VoD), which represents 19 percent of traffic (Table 6).

Table 6. Overall Traffic Share as of Year End 2018

Consumer

Business

Total

Internet

53%

12%

66%

Managed IP

19%

4%

22%

Mobile data

10%

2%

12%

Total

82%

18%

100%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2014

Metro and Long-Haul Traffic, 2013–2018

Metro-only traffic (traffic that traverses only the metro and bypasses long-haul traffic links) surpasses long-haul traffic in 2013, and will account for 62 percent of total IP traffic by 2018. Metro-only traffic will grow nearly twice asfast aslong-haul traffic from 2013 to 2018 (Table 7).

Table 7. Metro and Long-Haul Traffic, 2013–2018

Metro and Long-Haul Traffic, 2013–2018

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR
2013–2018

Metro-Only (PB per Month)

North America

12,194

15,573

19,634

24,298

29,790

36,148

24%

Asia Pacific

6,740

8,672

11,246

14,321

18,128

23,110

28%

Western Europe

4,569

5,706

7,137

8,986

11,342

14,438

26%

Central and Eastern Europe

720

978

1,414

1,984

2,818

3,901

40%

Latin America

637

844

1,210

1,638

2,150

2,793

34%

Middle East and Africa

148

206

298

431

602

812

41%

Long-Haul (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

11,210

13,447

15,623

18,063

20,958

24,163

17%

Central and Eastern Europe

2,933

3,438

4,029

4,682

5,514

6,322

17%

Latin America

2,851

3,517

4,108

4,724

5,426

6,137

17%

North America

4,413

4,720

4,965

5,079

4,761

4,397

-0.1%

Western Europe

3,827

4,033

4,198

4,458

4,709

4,819

5%

Middle East and Africa

926

1,341

1,876

2,596

3,507

4,512

37%

Total (PB per Month)

Total IP traffic

51,168

62,476

75,739

91,260

109,705

131,553

21%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2014

Content Delivery Network Traffic, 2013–2018

With the emergence of popular video-streaming services that deliver Internet video to the TV and other deviceendpoints, content delivery networks have prevailed as a dominant method to deliver such content. Globally, 55percent of all Internet traffic will cross content delivery networks by 2018, up from 36 percent in2013.Globally,67 percent of all Internet video traffic will cross content delivery networks by 2018, up from53percent in2013 (Table 8).

Table 8. Global Content Delivery Network Internet Traffic, 2013–2018

CDN Traffic, 2013–2018

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR
2013–2018

By Geography (PB per Month)

North America

5,609

7,538

10,187

13,627

18,018

23,064

33%

Asia Pacific

3,310

4,446

6,171

8,474

11,631

15,909

37%

Western Europe

3,137

4,021

5,195

6,790

8,907

11,724

30%

Central and Eastern Europe

522

704

1,059

1,542

2,233

3,184

44%

Latin America

483

613

842

1,127

1,488

1,939

32%

Middle East and Africa

114

165

250

373

535

722

45%

Total (PB per Month)

CDN Internet traffic

13,175

17,488

23,703

31,933

42,813

56,542

34%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2014

Consumer IP Traffic, 2013–2018

As shown in Table 9, global consumer IP traffic is expected to reach 108 exabytes per month in 2018. Most of today’s consumer IP traffic is Internet traffic.

Table 9. Global Consumer IP Traffic, 2013–2018

Consumer IP Traffic, 2013–2018

2013

2014

2,015

2,016

2,017

2,018

CAGR
2013–2018

By Type (PB per Month)

Internet

27,882

33,782

40,640

48,861

58,703

70,070

20%

Managed IP

11,834

14,491

17,236

19,725

22,018

24,660

16%

Mobile data

1,189

2,102

3,563

5,774

8,968

13,228

62%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

14,369

17,766

21,662

26,249

31,850

38,745

22%

North America

14,059

17,269

20,998

25,040

29,326

34,319

20%

Western Europe

6,549

7,633

8,878

10,568

12,694

15,340

19%

Central and Eastern Europe

2,508

3,183

4,051

5,055

6,417

7,954

26%

Latin America

2,756

3,511

4,341

5,233

6,268

7,424

22%

Middle East and Africa

664

1,014

1,509

2,216

3,134

4,177

44%

Total (PB per Month)

Consumer IP traffic

40,905

50,375

61,439

74,361

89,689

107,958

21%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2014

Consumer Internet Traffic, 2013–2018

This category encompasses any IP traffic that crosses the Internet and is not confined to a single service provider’s network. Internet video streaming and downloads are beginning to take a larger share of bandwidth and will grow to more than 76 percent of all consumer Internet traffic in 2018 (Table 10).

Table 10. Global Consumer Internet Traffic, 2013–2018

Consumer Internet Traffic, 2013–2018

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR
2013–2018

By Network (PB per Month)

Fixed

27,882

33,782

40,640

48,861

58,703

70,070

20%

Mobile

1,189

2,102

3,563

5,774

8,968

13,228

62%

By Subsegment (PB per Month)

Internet video

17,455

22,600

29,210

37,783

48,900

62,972

29%

Web, email, and data

5,505

6,706

8,150

9,913

11,827

13,430

20%

File sharing

6,085

6,548

6,803

6,875

6,856

6,784

2%

Online gaming

26

30

41

64

88

113

34%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

10,939

13,540

16,586

20,402

25,353

31,544

24%

North America

7,474

9,234

11,551

14,369

17,554

21,235

23%

Western Europe

5,117

5,948

6,936

8,372

10,259

12,625

20%

Central and Eastern Europe

2,309

2,909

3,696

4,612

5,833

7,237

26%

Latin America

2,602

3,280

3,972

4,722

5,606

6,569

20%

Middle East and Africa

630

973

1,461

2,158

3,067

4,087

45%

Total (PB per Month)

Consumer Internet traffic

29,071

35,884

44,203

54,636

67,672

83,298

23%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2014

Definitions

Web, email, and data: Includes web, email, instant messaging, and other data traffic (excludes file sharing)

File sharing: Includes peer-to-peer traffic from all recognized P2P systems such as BitTorrent and eDonkey, aswellas traffic from web-based file-sharing systems

Gaming: Includes casual online gaming, networked console gaming, and multiplayer virtual-world gaming

Internet video: Includes short-form Internet video (for example, YouTube), long-form Internet video (forexample, Hulu), live Internet video, Internet-video-to-TV (for example, Netflix through Roku), onlinevideo purchases and rentals, webcam viewing, and web-based video monitoring (excludes P2P videofile downloads)

Web, Email, and Data

This general category encompasses web browsing, email, instant messaging, data (which includes file transfer using HTTP and FTP), and other Internet applications (Table 11). Note that data may include the download of video files that are not captured by the Internet video to PC forecast. This category includes traffic generated byallindividual Internet users. An Internet user is here defined as someone who accesses the Internet through adesktop or laptop computer at home, school, Internet café, or other location outside the context of a business.

Table 11. Global Consumer Web, Email, and Data Traffic, 2013–2018

Consumer Web, Email, and Data Traffic, 2013–2018

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR
2013–2018

By Network (PB per Month)

Fixed web and data

4,939

5,625

6,385

7,183

7,858

8,061

10%

Mobile web and data

515

867

1,384

2,088

2,990

3,994

51%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

2,072

2,488

2,981

3,547

4,267

4,942

19%

North America

1,508

1,809

2,194

2,601

2,879

3,144

16%

Western Europe

1,023

1,101

1,189

1,317

1,458

1,505

8%

Central and Eastern Europe

287

384

545

766

1,025

1,225

34%

Middle East and Africa

137

221

331

465

597

610

35%

Latin America

427

489

530

575

622

629

8%

Total (PB per Month)

Consumer web, email, and data

5,454

6,492

7,769

9,270

10,848

12,055

17%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2014

File Sharing

This category includes traffic from P2P applications such as BitTorrent and eDonkey, as well as web-based file sharing. Note that a large portion of P2P traffic is due to the exchange of video files, so a total view of the impact ofvideo on the network should count P2P video traffic in addition to the traffic counted in the Internet video to PCand Internet video to TV categories. Table 12 shows the forecast for consumer P2P traffic from 2013 to 2018. Notethat the P2P category is limited to traditional file exchange and does not include commercial video-streaming applications that are delivered through P2P, such asPPStream or PPLive.

Table 12. Global Consumer File-Sharing Traffic, 2013–2018

Consumer File Sharing, 2013–2018

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR
2013–2018

By Network (PB per Month)

Fixed

6,044

6,492

6,729

6,783

6,744

6,652

2%

Mobile

41

56

74

92

112

131

26%

By Subsegment (PB per Month)

P2P file transfer

5,081

5,254

5,205

4,946

4,559

4,088

-4%

Other file transfer

1,004

1,294

1,598

1,929

2,297

2,696

22%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

2,560

2,794

2,935

3,009

3,041

3,020

3%

North America

802

878

951

1,018

1,073

1,124

7%

Western Europe

1,184

1,181

1,145

1,130

1,115

1,086

-2%

Central and Eastern Europe

872

951

992

956

923

891

0%

Latin America

567

634

673

672

649

608

1%

Middle East and Africa

100

110

107

90

55

54

-12%

Total (PB per Month)

Consumer file sharing

6,085

6,548

6,803

6,875

6,856

6,784

2%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2014

Internet Video

With the exception of the Internet video to TV subcategory, all of the Internet video subcategories consist of online video that is downloaded or streamed for viewing on a PC screen (Table 13). Internet video to TV is Internet delivery of video to a TV screen through a set-top box (STB) orequivalent device. Much of the video streamed or downloaded through the Internet consists of free clips, episodes, and other content offered by traditional content producers such as movie studios and television networks.

Table 13. Global Consumer Internet Video, 2013–2018

Consumer Internet Video 2013–2018

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR
2013–2018

By Network (PB per Month)

Fixed

16,873

21,635

27,485

34,832

44,012

55,244

27%

Mobile

633

1,179

2,106

3,594

5,867

9,103

70%

By Category (PB per Month)

Video

15,666

20,263

26,085

33,740

43,843

56,800

29%

Internet video to TV

1,840

2,551

3,505

4,686

6,036

7,547

33%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

6,302

8,253

10,665

13,837

18,032

23,566

30%

North America

5,153

6,533

8,388

10,721

13,562

16,917

27%

Western Europe

2,901

3,655

4,588

5,903

7,655

9,995

28%

Latin America

1,606

2,156

2,768

3,473

4,332

5,326

27%

Central and Eastern Europe

1,151

1,574

2,158

2,889

3,884

5,119

35%

Middle East and Africa

393

643

1,023

1,603

2,415

3,424

54%

Total (PB per Month)

Consumer Internet video

17,506

22,814

29,590

38,426

49,879

64,347

30%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2014

Definitions

Internet video to TV: Video delivered through the Internet to a TV screen by way of an Internet-enabled set-top box (for example, Roku) or equivalent device (for example, Microsoft Xbox 360), Internet-enabled TV, or PC-to-TV connection

Video: Video includes the following underlying categories:

- Short form: User-generated video and other video clips generally less than 7 minutes in length

- Video calling: Video messages or calling delivered on fixed Internet initiated by smartphones, non‑smartphones, andtablets

- Long form: Video content generally greater than 7 minutes in length

- Live Internet TV: Peer-to-peer TV (excluding P2P video downloads) and live television streaming overthe Internet

- Internet PVR: Recording of live TV content for later viewing

- Ambient video: Nannycams, petcams, home security cams, and other persistent video streams

- Mobile video: All video that travels over a second-generation (2G), 3G, or 4G network

Consumer Managed IP Traffic, 2013–2018

Managed IP video is IP traffic generated by traditional commercial TV services (Table 14). This traffic remains within the footprint of a single service provider, so it is not considered Internet traffic. (For Internet video delivered to the set-top box, see Internet video to TV in the previous section.)

Table 14. Global Consumer Managed IP Traffic, 2013–2018

Consumer Managed IP Traffic, 2013–2018

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR
2013–2018

By Network (PB per Month)

Fixed

11,834

14,491

17,236

19,725

22,018

24,660

16%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

3,430

4,226

5,075

5,847

6,497

7,201

16%

North America

6,584

8,035

9,447

10,671

11,772

13,084

15%

Western Europe

1,432

1,685

1,942

2,196

2,435

2,714

14%

Central and Eastern Europe

199

274

355

443

584

717

29%

Latin America

155

231

369

511

662

854

41%

Middle East and Africa

34

41

48

58

67

90

21%

Total (PB per Month)

Managed IP video traffic

11,834

14,491

17,236

19,725

22,018

24,660

16%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2014

Business IP Traffic

The enterprise forecast is based on the number of network-connected computers worldwide. In our experience, thisbasis provides the most accurate measure of enterprise data usage. An average business user might generate4 GBper month of Internet and WAN traffic. A large-enterprise user would generate significantly moretraffic, 8–10 GB per month (Table 15).

Table 15. Business IP Traffic, 2013–2018

Business IP Traffic, 2013–2018

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR
2013–2018

By Network Type (PB per Month)

Business Internet traffic

7,070

8,338

9,864

11,679

13,853

16,339

18%

Business managed IP traffic

2,902

3,283

3,661

4,013

4,343

4,645

10%

Business mobile data

291

480

774

1,207

1,820

2,610

55%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

3,581

4,353

5,207

6,134

7,236

8,529

19%

North America

2,548

3,025

3,601

4,337

5,225

6,225

20%

Western Europe

1,847

2,107

2,458

2,875

3,356

3,918

16%

Central and Eastern Europe

1,145

1,233

1,392

1,612

1,915

2,269

15%

Latin America

731

850

977

1,129

1,309

1,507

16%

Middle East and Africa

410

532

665

811

974

1,147

23%

Total (PB per Month)

Business IP traffic

10,263

12,100

14,300

16,899

20,016

23,595

18%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2014

Definitions

Business Internet traffic: All business traffic that crosses the public Internet

Business managed IP traffic: All business traffic that is transported over IP but remains within thecorporate WAN

Business mobile data traffic: All business traffic that crosses a mobile access point

Mobile Data Traffic

Mobile data traffic includes handset-based data traffic, such as text messaging, multimedia messaging, and handset video services (Table 16). Mobile Internet traffic is generated by wireless cards for portable computers andhandset-based mobile Internet usage.

Table 16. Mobile Data and Internet Traffic, 2013–2018

Mobile Data and Internet Traffic, 2013–2018

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR
2013–2018

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

524

953

1,670

2,777

4,442

6,718

67%

North America

389

625

969

1,453

2,101

2,954

50%

Western Europe

254

389

593

888

1,310

1,900

50%

Central and Eastern Europe

117

231

420

705

1,115

1,619

69%

Latin America

92

177

308

505

789

1,158

66%

Middle East and Africa

106

207

378

651

1,031

1,490

70%

Total (PB per Month)

Mobile data and Internet

1,480

2,582

4,337

6,981

10,788

15,838

61%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2014

For More Information

For more information, refer to the companion document The Zettabyte Era—Trends and Analysis. Inquiries can bedirected to traffic‑inquiries@cisco.com.