Guest

Visual Networking Index (VNI)

Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast and Methodology, 2012–2017

  • Viewing Options

  • PDF (303.1 KB)
  • Feedback
May 29, 2013

This forecast is part of the Cisco® Visual Networking Index (VNI), an ongoing initiative to track and forecast the impact of visual networking applications. This document presents the details of the Cisco VNI global IP traffic forecast and the methodology behind it. For a more analytical look at the implications of the data presented in this paper, please refer to the companion document, The Zettabyte Era-Trends and Analysis, or the VNI Forecast Highlights tool.

Executive Summary

Annual global IP traffic will surpass the zettabyte threshold (1.4 zettabytes) by the end of 2017. In 2017, global IP traffic will reach 1.4 zettabytes per year, or 120.6 exabytes per month. Global IP traffic will reach 1.0 zettabytes per year or 83.8 exabytes per month in 2015.
Global IP traffic has increased more than fourfold in the past 5 years, and will increase threefold over the next 5 years. Overall, IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23 percent from 2012 to 2017.
Busy hour Internet traffic is growing more rapidly than average Internet traffic. Busy hour Internet traffic increased 41 percent in 2012, compared to 34 percent growth in average traffic. Busy-hour Internet traffic will increase by a factor of 3.5 between 2012 and 2017, while average Internet traffic will increase 2.9-fold. Busy-hour Internet traffic will reach 865 Tbps in 2017, the equivalent of 720 million people streaming a high-definition video continuously.
Metro traffic will surpass long-haul traffic in 2014, and will account for 58 percent of total IP traffic by 2017. Metro traffic will grow nearly twice as fast as long-haul traffic from 2012 to 2017. The higher growth in metro networks is due in part to the increasingly significant role of content delivery networks, which bypass long-haul links and deliver traffic to metro and regional backbones.
Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) will carry over half of Internet traffic in 2017. 51 percent of all Internet traffic will cross content delivery networks in 2017 globally, up from 34 percent in 2012.
Nearly half of all IP traffic will originate with non-PC devices by 2017. In 2012, only 26 percent of consumer IP traffic originated with non-PC devices, but by 2017 the non-PC share of consumer IP traffic will grow to 49 percent. PC-originated traffic will grow at a CAGR of 14 percent, while TVs, tablets, mobile phones, and machine-to-machine (M2M) modules will have traffic growth rates of 24 percent, 104 percent, 79 percent, and 82 percent, respectively.
Traffic from wireless and mobile devices will exceed traffic from wired devices by 2016. By 2017, wired devices will account for 45 percent of IP traffic, while Wi-Fi and mobile devices will account for 55 percent of IP traffic. In 2012, wired devices accounted for the majority of IP traffic at 59 percent.
In 2017, the gigabyte equivalent of all movies ever made will cross global IP networks every 3 minutes. Global IP networks will deliver 13.8 petabytes every 5 minutes in 2017.
The number of devices connected to IP networks will be nearly three times as high as the global population in 2017. There will be nearly three networked devices per capita in 2017, up from nearly two networked devices per capita in 2012. Accelerated in part by the increase in devices and the capabilities of those devices, IP traffic per capita will reach 16 gigabytes per capita in 2017, up from 6 gigabytes per capita in 2012.

Video Highlights

It would take an individual over 5 million years to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks each month in 2017. Every second, nearly a million minutes of video content will cross the network in 2017.
Globally, consumer Internet video traffic will be 69 percent of all consumer Internet traffic in 2017, up from 57 percent in 2012. This percentage does not include video exchanged through peer-to-peer (P2P) file sharing. The sum of all forms of video (TV, video on demand [VoD], Internet, and P2P) will be in the range of 80 to 90 percent of global consumer traffic by 2017.
Internet video to TV doubled in 2012. Internet video to TV will continue to grow at a rapid pace, increasing fivefold by 2017. Internet video to TV traffic will be 14 percent of consumer Internet video traffic in 2017, up from 9 percent in 2012.
Video-on-demand traffic will nearly triple by 2017. The amount of VoD traffic in 2017 will be equivalent to 6 billion DVDs per month.
Content Delivery Network (CDN) traffic will deliver almost two-thirds of all video traffic by 2017. By 2017, 65 percent of all Internet video traffic will cross content delivery networks in 2017, up from 53 percent in 2012.

Mobile Highlights

Globally, mobile data traffic will increase 13-fold between 2012 and 2017. Mobile data traffic will grow at a CAGR of 66 percent between 2012 and 2017, reaching 11.2 exabytes per month by 2017.
Global mobile data traffic will grow three times faster than fixed IP traffic from 2012 to 2017. Global mobile data traffic was 2 percent of total IP traffic in 2012, and will be 9 percent of total IP traffic in 2017.

Regional Highlights

IP traffic is growing fastest in the Middle East and Africa, followed by Asia Pacific. Traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 38 percent between 2012 and 2017.
IP traffic in North America will reach 40.7 exabytes per month by 2017, at a CAGR of 23 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in North America will generate 7 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 26.3 exabytes per month.
IP traffic in Western Europe will reach 16.8 exabytes per month by 2017, at a CAGR of 17 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Western Europe will generate 3 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 13.6 exabytes per month.
IP traffic in Asia Pacific will reach 43.4 exabytes per month by 2017, at a CAGR of 26 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Asia Pacific will generate 9 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 35.8 exabytes per month.
IP traffic in Latin America will reach 7.4 exabytes per month by 2017, at a CAGR of 17 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Latin America will generate 2 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 6.7 exabytes per month.
IP traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will reach 8.8 exabytes per month by 2017, at a CAGR of 21 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will generate 2 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 7.4 exabytes per month.
IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will reach 3.5 exabytes per month by 2017, at a CAGR of 38 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in the Middle East and Africa will generate 789 million DVDs' worth of traffic, or 3.2 exabytes per month.

Global Business Highlights

Business IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 21 percent from 2012 to 2017. Increased adoption of advanced video communications in the enterprise segment will cause business IP traffic to grow by a factor of three between 2012 and 2017.
Business Internet traffic will grow at a faster pace than IP WAN. IP WAN will grow at a CAGR of 13 percent, compared to a CAGR of 21 percent for fixed business Internet and 59 percent for mobile business Internet.
Business IP traffic will grow fastest in the Middle East and Africa. Business IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 29 percent, a faster pace than the global average of 21 percent. In volume, Asia Pacific will have the largest amount of business IP traffic in 2017 at 8.3 exabytes per month. North America will be the second at 5.4 exabytes per month.

Overview of VNI Methodology

The Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast methodology rests on a combination of analyst projections, in-house estimates and forecasts, and direct data collection. The analyst projections for broadband connections, video subscribers, mobile connections, and Internet application adoption come from SNL Kagan, Ovum, Informa Telecoms & Media, Infonetics, IDC, Gartner, AMI, Arbitron Mobile, Ookla Speedtest.net, Strategy Analytics, Screen Digest, Dell'Oro Group, Synergy, comScore, Nielsen, and others. Upon this foundation are layered Cisco's own estimates for application adoption, minutes of use, and kilobytes per minute. The adoption, usage, and bitrate assumptions are tied to fundamental enablers such as broadband speed and computing speed. All usage and traffic results are then validated using data shared with Cisco from service providers. Figure 1 shows the forecast methodology.

Figure 1. Cisco VNI Forecast Methodology Incorporates Fundamental Enablers of Adoption and Usage

Following the methodology through each step for a single application category (in this case, Internet video) will illustrate the estimation process.

Step 1: Number of Users

The forecast for Internet video begins with estimations of the number of consumer fixed Internet users. Even such a basic measure as consumer fixed Internet users can be difficult to assess, because few analyst firms segment the number of users by both segment (consumer versus business) and network (mobile versus fixed). This year, the number of consumer fixed Internet users was not taken directly from an analyst source but was estimated from analyst forecasts for consumer broadband connections, data on hotspot users from a variety of government sources, and population forecasts by age segment. The number of Internet video users was collected and estimated from a variety of sources, and the numbers were then reconciled with the estimate of overall Internet users.

Step 2: Application Adoption

After the number of Internet video users has been established, the number of users for each video subsegment must be estimated. It was assumed that all Internet video users view short-form video in addition to other forms of video they may watch. On average 37 percent of Internet video users watch long-form content (based partially on comScore Video Metrix figures for video sites whose average viewing time is longer than 5 minutes), 23 percent watch some form of live content, 3 percent are ambient video watchers, and 4 percent are Internet personal video recorder (PVR) users. These figures are global averages; regional adoption rates for the application subsegments can vary significantly.

Step 3. Minutes of Use

For each application subsegment, minutes of use (MOU) are estimated. Multiple sources are used to determine MOU: the Cisco VNI Usage data collection program provides a minute-per-subscriber baseline for many applications, the Cisco Connected Life Market Watch survey provides MOU for markets that are not covered by the Usage program, and comScore Video Metrix provides PC-based MOU for online video. Special care is taken to ensure that the total number of Internet video minutes is well within the total number of video minutes (including television broadcast) for each user. For example, if the average individual watches a total of 4 hours of video content per day, the sum of Internet, managed IP, and mobile video hours should be a relatively small portion of the total 4 hours.

Step 4. Bitrates

After MOU have been estimated for each subsegment of video, the next step is to apply kilobytes (KB) per minute. To calculate kilobytes per minute, first the regional and country average broadband speeds are estimated for the years 2012 through 2017. For each application category, a representative bitrate is established, and this representative bitrate grows at approximately the same pace as the broadband speed. For video categories, a 7-percent annual compression gain is applied to the bitrate. Local bitrates are then calculated based on how much the average broadband speed in the country differs from the global average, digital screen size in the country, and the computing power of the average device in the country. Combining these factors yields bitrates that are then applied to the MOU.

Step 5: Rollup

The next step in the methodology is to multiply the bitrates, MOU, and users together to get average petabytes per month.

Step 6: Traffic Migration Assessment

The next step is to reconcile the Internet, managed IP, and mobile segments of the forecast. The portion of mobile data traffic that has migrated from the fixed network is subtracted from the fixed forecast, and the amount of mobile data traffic offloaded onto the fixed network through dual-mode devices and femtocells is added back to the fixed forecast.
The sections that follow present quantitative results of the forecast and details of the methodology for each segment and type.

Global IP Traffic Growth, 2012-2017

Table 1 shows the top-line forecast. According to this forecast, global IP traffic in 2012 stands at 43.6 exabytes per month and will grow threefold by 2017, to reach 120.6 exabytes per month. Consumer IP traffic will reach 98.9 exabytes per month and business IP traffic will surpass 21.7 exabytes per month.

Table 1. Global IP Traffic, 2012-2017

IP Traffic, 2012-2017

       

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

CAGR
2012-2017

By Type (PB per Month)

Fixed Internet

31,339

39,295

47,987

57,609

68,878

81,818

21%

Managed IP

11,346

14,679

18,107

21,523

24,740

27,668

20%

Mobile data

885

1,578

2,798

4,704

7,437

11,157

66%

By Segment (PB per Month)

Consumer

35,047

45,023

56,070

68,418

82,683

98,919

23%

Business

8,522

10,530

12,822

15,417

18,372

21,724

21%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

13,906

18,121

22,953

28,667

35,417

43,445

26%

North America

14,439

18,788

23,520

28,667

34,457

40,672

23%

Western Europe

7,722

9,072

10,568

12,241

14,323

16,802

17%

Central and Eastern Europe

3,405

4,202

5,167

6,274

7,517

8,844

21%

Latin America

3,397

4,321

5,201

5,975

6,682

7,415

17%

Middle East and Africa

701

1,049

1,483

2,013

2,659

3,465

38%

Total (PB per Month)

Total IP traffic

43,570

55,553

68,892

83,835

101,055

120,643

23%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2013

Definitions

Consumer: Includes fixed IP traffic generated by households, university populations, and Internet cafés

Business: Includes fixed IP WAN or Internet traffic generated by businesses and governments

Mobile: Includes mobile data and Internet traffic generated by handsets, notebook cards, and mobile broadband gateways

Internet: Denotes all IP traffic that crosses an Internet backbone

Managed IP: Includes corporate IP WAN traffic and IP transport of TV and VoD

The following tables show cross-tabulations of end-user segment and network type for the final year of the forecast period (2017). Consumer Internet remains the primary generator of IP traffic, but mobile data has the highest growth rate and begins to generate significant traffic by 2017 (Table 2).

Table 2. Exabytes per Month as of Year End 2017

       

Consumer

Business

Total

Internet

66.8

15.0

81.8

Managed IP

22.9

4.7

27.7

Mobile data

9.1

2.0

11.2

Total

98.8

21.7

120.7

Source: Cisco VNI, 2013

Table 3 shows the same data as Table 2, but in terms of annual traffic run rates. These run rates are based on the monthly traffic at the end of 2017.

Table 3. Exabytes per Year as of Year End 2017

       

Consumer

Business

Total

Internet

802.1

179.7

981.8

Managed IP

275.4

56.7

332.0

Mobile data

109.6

24.3

133.9

Total

1,187.1

260.7

1,447.7

Source: Cisco VNI, 2013

Consumer and business traffic are both dominated by Internet traffic, although business traffic is more evenly distributed across public Internet and managed IP (Table 4).

Table 4. Traffic Share by End-User Segment as of Year End 2017

       

Consumer

Business

Internet

68%

69%

Managed IP

23%

22%

Mobile data

9%

9%

Total

100%

100%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2013

Consumer traffic accounts for the majority of IP traffic in every network type segment. Consumer traffic will be 91 percent of all Internet traffic, 77 percent of all mobile data traffic, and 80 percent of managed IP traffic (Table 5).

Table 5. Traffic Share by Network Type as of Year End 2017

       

Consumer

Business

Total

Internet

82%

18%

100%

Managed IP

83%

17%

100%

Mobile data

82%

18%

100%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2013

Consumer Internet traffic will represent two-thirds of all IP traffic, followed by consumer managed IP (VoD), which represents 13 percent of traffic (Table 6).

Table 6. Overall Traffic Share as of Year End 2017

       

Consumer

Business

Total

Internet

55%

12%

68%

Managed IP

19%

4%

23%

Mobile data

8%

2%

9%

Total

82%

18%

100%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2013

Metro and Long Haul Traffic, 2012-2017

Metro-only traffic (traffic that traverses only the metro and bypasses long-haul traffic links) will surpass long-haul traffic in 2014, and will account for 58% of total IP traffic by 2017. Metro-only traffic will grow nearly twice as fast as long-haul traffic from 2012 to 2017 (Table 7).

Table 7. Metro and Long-Haul Traffic, 2012-2017

Metro and Long-Haul Traffic, 2012-2017

       

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

CAGR
2012-2017

Metro-Only (PB per Month)

North America

10,188

13,797

18,193

23,038

28,732

35,225

28%

Asia Pacific

4,392

5,956

7,965

10,623

13,882

17,781

32%

Western Europe

3,860

4,842

6,131

7,594

9,443

11,714

25%

Central and Eastern Europe

603

842

1,185

1,691

2,310

3,040

38%

Latin America

571

761

983

1,280

1,582

1,922

27%

Middle East and Africa

84

121

166

225

297

387

36%

Long-Haul (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

9,513

12,164

14,988

18,044

21,535

25,664

22%

Central and Eastern Europe

2,802

3,360

3,982

4,583

5,207

5,804

16%

Latin America

2,826

3,560

4,218

4,695

5,099

5,492

14%

North America

4,251

4,991

5,326

5,628

5,725

5,447

5%

Western Europe

3,862

4,230

4,437

4,647

4,880

5,088

6%

Middle East and Africa

617

928

1,317

1,787

2,362

3,077

38%

Total (PB per Month)

Total IP traffic

43,570

55,553

68,892

83,835

101,055

120,643

23%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2013

Content Delivery Network Traffic, 2012-2017

With the emergence of popular video-streaming services that deliver Internet video to the TV and other device endpoints, CDNs have prevailed as a dominant method to deliver such content. Globally, 51% of all Internet traffic will cross content delivery networks in 2017, up from 34% in 2012. Globally, 65 percent of all Internet video traffic will cross content delivery networks in 2017, up from 53 percent in 2012 (Table 8).

Table 8. Global Content Delivery Network Internet Traffic, 2012-2017

CDN Traffic, 2012-2017

       

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

CAGR
2012-2017

By Geography (PB per Month)

North America

4,630

6,484

9,127

12,349

16,581

21,766

36%

Asia Pacific

2,468

3,347

4,617

6,444

8,876

12,065

37%

Western Europe

2,792

3,517

4,542

5,723

7,298

9,323

27%

Central and Eastern Europe

437

586

809

1,163

1,611

2,150

38%

Latin America

465

597

747

967

1,204

1,470

26%

Middle East and Africa

71

103

142

197

265

351

38%

Total (PB per Month)

CDN Internet traffic

10,863

14,633

19,984

26,842

35,834

47,124

34%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2013

Consumer IP Traffic, 2012-2017

As shown in Table 9, global consumer IP traffic is expected to reach 98.9 exabytes per month in 2017. Most of today's consumer IP traffic is Internet traffic.

Table 9. Global Consumer IP Traffic, 2012-2017

Consumer IP Traffic, 2012-2017

       

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

CAGR
2012-2017

By Type (PB per Month)

Internet

25,529

32,097

39,206

47,035

56,243

66,842

21%

Managed IP

8,835

11,686

14,640

17,609

20,414

22,946

21%

Mobile data

684

1,239

2,223

3,774

6,026

9,131

68%

By Geography (PB per Month)

North America

12,392

16,237

20,378

24,876

29,891

35,223

23%

Asia Pacific

10,957

14,363

18,236

22,887

28,465

35,156

26%

Western Europe

6,153

7,204

8,394

9,681

11,342

13,344

17%

Central and Eastern Europe

2,360

3,013

3,809

4,710

5,714

6,787

24%

Latin America

2,763

3,547

4,285

4,902

5,423

5,939

17%

Middle East and Africa

423

658

968

1,362

1,848

2,469

42%

Total (PB per Month)

Consumer IP traffic

35,047

45,023

56,070

68,418

82,683

98,919

23%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2013

Consumer Internet Traffic, 2012-2017

This category encompasses any IP traffic that crosses the Internet and is not confined to a single service provider's network. Internet video streaming and downloads are beginning to take a larger share of bandwidth and will grow to more than 69 percent of all consumer Internet traffic in 2017 (Table 10).

Table 10. Global Consumer Internet Traffic, 2012-2017

Consumer Internet Traffic, 2012-2017

       

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

CAGR
2012-2017

By Network (PB per Month)

Fixed

25,529

32,097

39,206

47,035

56,243

66,842

21%

Mobile

684

1,239

2,223

3,774

6,026

9,131

68%

By Subsegment (PB per Month)

Internet video

14,818

19,855

25,800

32,962

41,916

52,752

29%

Web, email, and data

5,173

6,336

7,781

9,542

11,828

14,494

23%

File sharing

6,201

7,119

7,816

8,266

8,478

8,667

7%

Online gaming

22

26

32

39

48

59

22%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

9,033

11,754

14,887

18,707

23,458

29,440

27%

North America

6,834

8,924

11,312

14,188

17,740

21,764

26%

Western Europe

5,086

5,880

6,804

7,810

9,197

10,953

17%

Central and Eastern Europe

2,194

2,757

3,433

4,182

5,015

5,897

22%

Latin America

2,656

3,382

4,049

4,588

5,045

5,487

16%

Middle East and Africa

410

640

944

1,334

1,816

2,432

43%

Total (PB per Month)

Consumer Internet traffic

26,213

33,337

41,429

50,809

62,269

75,973

24%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2013

Definitions

Web, email, and data: Includes web, email, instant messaging, and other data traffic (excludes file sharing)

File sharing: Includes peer-to-peer traffic from all recognized P2P systems such as BitTorrent and eDonkey, as well as traffic from web-based file-sharing systems

Gaming: Includes casual online gaming, networked console gaming, and multiplayer virtual-world gaming

Internet video: Includes short-form Internet video (for example, YouTube), long-form Internet video (for example, Hulu), live Internet video, Internet-video-to-TV (for example, Netflix through Roku), online video purchases and rentals, webcam viewing, and web-based video monitoring (excludes P2P video file downloads)

Web, Email, and Data

This general category encompasses web browsing, email, instant messaging, data (which includes file transfer using HTTP and FTP) and other Internet applications (Table 11). Note that data may include the download of video files that are not captured by the Internet video to PC forecast. This category includes traffic generated by all individual Internet users. An Internet user is here defined as someone who accesses the Internet through a desktop or laptop computer at home, school, Internet café, or other location outside the context of a business.

Table 11. Global Consumer Web, Email, and Data Traffic, 2012-2017

Consumer Web, Email, and Data Traffic, 2012-2017

       

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

CAGR
2012-2017

By Network (PB per Month)

Fixed web and data

4,851

5,762

6,782

7,921

9,366

10,960

18%

Mobile web and data

321

574

999

1,621

2,462

3,534

62%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

1,711

2,231

2,925

3,798

4,898

6,261

30%

North America

1,452

1,882

2,387

2,995

3,715

4,534

26%

Western Europe

1,144

1,224

1,330

1,456

1,652

1,883

10%

Central and Eastern Europe

299

323

359

415

554

654

17%

Middle East and Africa

84

138

217

321

446

586

48%

Latin America

483

538

562

556

562

575

4%

Total (PB per Month)

Consumer web, email, and data

5,173

6,336

7,781

9,542

11,828

14,494

23%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2013

File Sharing

This category includes traffic from P2P applications such as BitTorrent and eDonkey, as well as web-based file sharing. Note that a large portion of P2P traffic is due to the exchange of video files, so a total view of the impact of video on the network should count P2P video traffic in addition to the traffic counted in the Internet video to PC and Internet video to TV categories. Table 12 shows the forecast for consumer P2P traffic from 2012 to 2017. Note that the P2P category is limited to traditional file exchange and does not include commercial video-streaming applications that are delivered through P2P, such as PPStream or PPLive.

Table 12. Global Consumer File-Sharing Traffic, 2012-2017

Consumer File Sharing, 2011-2016

       

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

CAGR
2012-2017

By Network (PB per Month)

Fixed

6,155

7,060

7,738

8,159

8,343

8,506

7%

Mobile

45

59

78

107

135

161

29%

By Subsegment (PB per Month)

P2P file transfer

5,374,262

5,981,677

6,330,010

6,404,161

6,199,877

5,893,411

2%

Other file transfer

826,343

1,137,158

1,486,266

1,861,915

2,277,919

2,773,901

27%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

2,358

2,801

3,156

3,440

3,655

3,857

10%

Central and Eastern Europe

911

1,079

1,242

1,374

1,427

1,494

10%

North America

829

982

1,090

1,173

1,244

1,302

9%

Western Europe

1,350

1,367

1,360

1,305

1,255

1,235

-2%

Latin America

666

782

850

862

807

725

2%

Middle East and Africa

88

108

118

112

89

53

-10%

Total (PB per Month)

Consumer file sharing

6,201

7,119

7,816

8,266

8,478

8,667

7%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2013

Internet Video

With the exception of the Internet video to TV subcategory, all of the Internet video subcategories consist of online video that is downloaded or streamed for viewing on a PC screen (Table 13). Internet video to TV is Internet delivery of video to a TV screen through a set-top box (STB) or equivalent device. Much of the video streamed or downloaded through the Internet consists of free clips, episodes, and other content offered by traditional content producers such as movie studios and television networks.

Table 13. Global Consumer Internet Video, 2012-2017

Consumer Internet Video 2012-2017

       

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

CAGR
2012-2017

By Network (PB per Month)

Fixed

10,230

16,430

19,980

24,994

31,722

40,532

32%

Mobile

193

450

924

1,729

3,033

4,749

90%

By Category (PB per Month)

Video

13,483

17,850

22,950

29,050

36,742

46,237

28%

Internet video to TV

1,335

2,005

2,851

3,913

5,174

6,515

37%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

4,960

6,716

8,800

11,460

14,894

19,309

31%

North America

4,545

6,049

7,822

10,004

12,761

15,905

28%

Western Europe

2,584

3,280

4,103

5,036

6,273

7,813

25%

Latin America

1,507

2,062

2,634

3,169

3,674

4,184

23%

Central and Eastern Europe

984

1,355

1,832

2,392

3,034

3,749

31%

Middle East and Africa

238

393

609

901

1,280

1,793

50%

Total (PB per Month)

Consumer Internet video

14,818

19,855

25,800

32,962

41,916

52,752

29%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2013

Definitions

Internet video to TV: Video delivered through the Internet to a TV screen by way of an Internet-enabled set-top box (for example, Roku) or equivalent device (for example, Microsoft Xbox 360), Internet-enabled TV, or PC-to-TV connection

Video: Video comprises the following underlying categories:

– Short form: User-generated video and other video clips generally less than 7 minutes in length

– Video calling: Video messages or calling delivered on fixed Internet initiated by smartphones, non-smartphones, and tablets

– Long form: Video content generally greater than 7 minutes in length

– Live Internet TV: Peer-to-peer TV (excluding P2P video downloads) and live television streaming over the Internet

– Internet PVR: Recording of live TV content for later viewing

– Ambient video: Nannycams, petcams, home security cams, and other persistent video streams

– Mobile video: All video that travels over a second-generation (2G), 3G, or 4G network

Consumer Managed IP Traffic, 2012-2017

Managed IP video is IP traffic generated by traditional commercial TV services (Table 14). This traffic remains within the footprint of a single service provider, so it is not considered Internet traffic. (For Internet video delivered to the set-top box, see Internet video to TV in the previous section.)

Table 14. Global Consumer Managed IP Traffic, 2012-2017

Consumer Managed IP Traffic, 2011-2016

       

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

CAGR
2012-2017

By Network (PB per Month)

Fixed

8,835

11,686

14,640

17,609

20,414

22,946

21%

By Geography (PB per Month)

North America

5,558

7,313

9,066

10,689

12,151

13,459

19%

Western Europe

1,068

1,324

1,590

1,871

2,145

2,392

18%

Asia Pacific

1,924

2,609

3,348

4,180

5,006

5,717

24%

Latin America

106

165

237

313

379

452

34%

Central and Eastern Europe

165

257

376

528

699

890

40%

Middle East and Africa

13

18

24

28

33

37

23%

Total (PB per Month)

Managed IP video traffic

8,835

11,686

14,640

17,609

20,414

22,946

21%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2013

Business IP Traffic

The enterprise forecast is based on the number of network-connected computers worldwide. In our experience, this basis provides the most accurate measure of enterprise data usage. An average business user might generate 4 GB per month of Internet and WAN traffic. A large-enterprise user would generate significantly more traffic, 8-10 GB per month (Table 15).

Table 15. Business IP Traffic, 2012-2017

Business IP Traffic, 2012-2017

       

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

CAGR
2012-2017

By Network Type (PB per Month)

Business Internet traffic

5,809

7,198

8,781

10,573

12,635

14,976

21%

Business managed IP traffic

2,512

2,993

3,466

3,914

4,326

4,722

13%

Business mobile data

201

339

575

930

1,411

2,026

59%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

2,949

3,758

4,718

5,780

6,952

8,289

23%

North America

2,047

2,551

3,141

3,790

4,566

5,449

22%

Western Europe

1,568

1,868

2,174

2,559

2,981

3,458

17%

Central and Eastern Europe

1,045

1,189

1,358

1,564

1,803

2,057

14%

Latin America

635

774

916

1,073

1,258

1,476

18%

Middle East and Africa

278

391

516

651

811

995

29%

Total (PB per Month)

Business IP traffic

8,522

10,530

12,822

15,417

18,372

21,724

21%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2013

Definitions

Business Internet traffic: All business traffic that crosses the public Internet

Business managed IP traffic: All business traffic that is transported over IP but remains within the corporate WAN

Business mobile data traffic: All business traffic that crosses a mobile access point

Mobile Data Traffic

Mobile data traffic includes handset-based data traffic, such as text messaging, multimedia messaging, and handset video services (Table 16). Mobile Internet traffic is generated by wireless cards for portable computers and handset-based mobile Internet usage.

Table 16. Mobile Data and Internet Traffic, 2012-2017

Mobile Data and Internet Traffic, 2012-2017

       

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

CAGR
2012-2017

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

310

614

1,168

2,053

3,377

5,257

76%

North America

222

380

632

993

1,466

2,087

56%

Western Europe

181

276

426

655

976

1,384

50%

Middle East and Africa

50

96

182

333

559

861

77%

Central and Eastern Europe

66

116

211

365

577

845

66%

Latin America

55

97

179

304

481

723

67%

Total (PB per Month)

Mobile data and Internet

885

1,578

2,798

4,704

7,437

11,157

66%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2013

For More Information

For more information, refer to the companion document The Zettabyte Era -Trends and Analysis. Inquiries can be directed to traffic-inquiries@cisco.com.