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Visual Networking Index (VNI)

Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast and Methodology, 2014-2019 White Paper

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May 27, 2015

This forecast is part of the Cisco Visual Networking Index (Cisco VNI), an ongoing initiative to track and forecast the impact of visual networking applications. This document presents the details of the Cisco VNI global IP traffic forecast and the methodology behind it. For a more analytical look at the implications of the data presented in this paper, refer to the companion document, The Zettabyte Era—Trends and Analysis, or the VNI Forecast Highlights tool.

Executive Summary

Annual global IP traffic will surpass the zettabyte (1000 exabytes) threshold in 2016, and the two zettabyte threshold in 2019. Global IP traffic will reach 1.1 zettabytes per year or 88.4 exabytes (one billion gigabytes) per month in 2016. By 2019, global IP traffic will pass a new milestone figure of 2.0 zettabytes per year, or 168.0 exabytes per month.

Global IP traffic has increased more than fivefold in the past 5 years, and will increase nearly threefold over the next 5 years. Overall, IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23 percent from 2014 to 2019.

Busy-hour Internet traffic is growing more rapidly than average Internet traffic. Busy-hour (or the busiest 60‑minute period in a day) Internet traffic increased 34 percent in 2014, compared with 26 percent growth in average traffic. Busy-hour Internet traffic will increase by a factor of 3.4 between 2014 and 2019, while average Internet traffic will increase 2.8-fold. Busy-hour Internet traffic will reach 1.7 petabits per second (Pbps) by 2019.

Metro traffic will surpass long-haul traffic in 2015, and will account for 66 percent of total IP traffic by 2019. Globally, metro traffic will grow nearly twice as fast as long-haul traffic from 2014 to 2019. The higher growth in metro networks is due in part to the increasingly significant role of content delivery networks, which bypass long-haul links and deliver traffic to metro and regional backbones.

Content delivery networks will carry over half of Internet traffic by 2019. Globally, Sixty-two percent of all Internet traffic will cross content delivery networks by 2019 globally, up from 39 percent in 2014.

Over half of all IP traffic will originate with non-PC devices by 2019. In 2014, only 40 percent of total IP traffic originated with non-PC devices, but by 2019 the non-PC share of total IP traffic will grow to 67 percent. PC-originated traffic will grow at a CAGR of 9 percent, while TVs, tablets, smartphones, and machine-to-machine (M2M) modules will have traffic growth rates of 17 percent, 65 percent, 62 percent, and 71 percent, respectively.

Traffic from wireless and mobile devices will exceed traffic from wired devices by 2019. By 2019, wired devices will account for 33 percent of IP traffic, while Wi-Fi and mobile devices will account for 66 percent of IP traffic. In 2014, wired devices accounted for the majority of IP traffic at 54 percent.

Global Internet traffic in 2019 will be equivalent to 64 times the volume of the entire global Internet in 2005. Globally, Internet traffic will reach 18 gigabytes (GB) per capita by 2019, up from 6 GB per capita in 2014.

The number of devices connected to IP networks will be three times as high as the global population in 2019. There will be three networked devices per capita by 2019, up from nearly two networked devices per capita in 2014. Accelerated in part by the increase in devices and the capabilities of those devices, IP traffic per capita will reach 22 GB per capita by 2019, up from 8 GB per capita in 2014.

Broadband speeds will double by 2019. By 2019, global fixed broadband speeds will reach 43 Mbps, up from 20 Mbps in 2014.

Video Highlights

It would take an individual over 5 million years to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks each month in 2019. Every second, nearly a million minutes of video content will cross the network by 2019.

Globally, consumer internet video traffic will be 80 percent of all consumer Internet traffic in 2019, up from 64 percent in 2014. This percentage does not include video exchanged through peer-to-peer (P2P) file sharing. The sum of all forms of video (TV, video on demand [VoD], Internet, and P2P) will be in the range of 80 to 90 percent of global consumer traffic by 2019.

Internet video to TV doubled in 2014. Internet video to TV will continue to grow at a rapid pace, increasing fourfold by 2019. Internet video to TV traffic will be 17 percent of consumer Internet video traffic by 2019, up from 16 percent in 2014.

Consumer VoD traffic will double by 2019. HD will be 70 percent of IP VOD traffic in 2019, up from 59 percent in 2014.

Content delivery network traffic will deliver over half of all internet video traffic by 2019. By 2019, 72 percent of all Internet video traffic will cross content delivery networks, up from 57 percent in 2014.

Mobile Highlights

Globally, mobile data traffic will increase 10-fold between 2014 and 2019. Mobile data traffic will grow at a CAGR of 57 percent between 2014 and 2019, reaching 24.2 exabytes per month by 2019.

Global mobile data traffic will grow three times faster than fixed IP traffic from 2014 to 2019. Global mobile data traffic was 4 percent of total IP traffic in 2014, and will be 14 percent of total IP traffic by 2019.

Regional Highlights

IP traffic is growing fastest in the Middle East and Africa, followed by Asia Pacific. Traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 44 percent between 2014 and 2019.

IP traffic in North America will reach 49.7 exabytes per month by 2019, at a CAGR of 20 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in North America will generate 9 billion DVDs’ worth of traffic, or 35.4 exabytes per month.

IP traffic in Western Europe will reach 24.7 exabytes per month by 2019, at a CAGR of 21 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Western Europe will generate 5 billion DVDs’ worth of traffic, or 20.8 exabytes per month.

IP traffic in Asia Pacific will reach 54.4 exabytes per month by 2019, at a CAGR of 21 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Asia Pacific will generate 11 billion DVDs’ worth of traffic, or 44.1 exabytes per month.

IP traffic in Latin America will reach 12.9 exabytes per month by 2019, at a CAGR of 25 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Latin America will generate 3 billion DVDs’ worth of traffic, or 11.3 exabytes per month.

IP traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will reach 16.9 exabytes per month by 2019, at a CAGR of 33 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will generate 4 billion DVDs’ worth of traffic, or 15.8 exabytes per month.

IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will reach 9.4 exabytes per month by 2019, at a CAGR of 44 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in the Middle East and Africa will generate 2 billion DVDs’ worth of traffic, or 8.8 exabytes per month.

Global Business Highlights

Business IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 20 percent from 2014 to 2019. Increased adoption of advanced video communications in the enterprise segment will cause business IP traffic to grow by a factor of two between 2014 and 2019.

Business Internet traffic will grow at a faster pace than IP WAN. IP WAN will grow at a CAGR of 23 percent, compared with a CAGR of 20 percent for fixed business Internet and 51 percent for mobile business Internet.

Business IP traffic will grow fastest in the Middle East and Africa. Business IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 26 percent, a faster pace than the global average of 20 percent. In volume, Asia Pacific will have the largest amount of business IP traffic in 2019, at 9.6 exabytes per month. North America will be the second at 8.0 exabytes per month.

Overview of VNI Methodology

The Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast methodology has been developed based on a combination of analyst projections, in-house estimates and forecasts, and direct data collection. The analyst projections for broadband connections, video subscribers, mobile connections, and Internet application adoption come from SNL Kagan, Ovum, Informa Telecoms & Media, Infonetics, IDC, Gartner, AMI, Arbitron Mobile, Ookla Speedtest.net, Strategy Analytics, Screen Digest, Dell’Oro Group, Synergy, comScore, Nielsen, and others. Upon this foundation are layered Cisco’s own estimates for application adoption, minutes of use, and kilobytes per minute. The adoption, usage, and bitrate assumptions are tied to fundamental enablers such as broadband speed and computing speed. All usage and traffic results are then validated using data shared with Cisco from service providers. Figure 1 shows the forecast methodology.

Figure 1.      Cisco VNI Forecast Methodology Incorporates Fundamental Enablers of Adoption and Usage

Following the methodology through each step for a single application category (in this case, Internet video) illustrates the estimation process.

Step 1: Number of Users

The forecast for Internet video begins with estimations of the number of consumer fixed Internet users. Even such a basic measure as consumer fixed Internet users can be difficult to assess, because few analyst firms segment the number of users by both segment (consumer versus business) and network (mobile versus fixed). This year, the number of consumer fixed Internet users was not taken directly from an analyst source but was estimated from analyst forecasts for consumer broadband connections, data on hotspot users from a variety of government sources, and population forecasts by age segment. The number of Internet video users was collected and estimated from a variety of sources, and the numbers were then reconciled with the estimate of overall Internet users.

Step 2: Application Adoption

After the number of Internet video users has been established, the number of users for each video subsegment must be estimated. It was assumed that all Internet video users view short-form video in addition to other forms of video they may watch. The Internet video users that watch long form video (based partially on comScore Video Metrix figures for video sites whose average viewing time is longer than 5 minutes), live video, ambient video and Internet personal video recorder (PVR) is estimated.

Step 3. Minutes of Use

For each application subsegment, minutes of use (MOU) are estimated. Multiple sources are used to determine MOU: the Cisco VNI Usage data collection program provides a minute-per-subscriber baseline for many applications, the Cisco Connected Life Market Watch survey provides MOU for markets that are not covered by the Usage program, and comScore Video Metrix provides PC-based MOU for online video. Special care is taken to help ensure that the total number of Internet video minutes is well within the total number of video minutes (including television broadcast) for each user. For example, if the average individual watches a total of 4 hours of video content per day, the sum of Internet, managed IP, and mobile video hours should be a relatively small portion of the total 4 hours.

Step 4. Bitrates

After MOU have been estimated for each subsegment of video, the next step is to apply kilobytes (KB) per minute. To calculate KB per minute, first the regional and country average broadband speeds are estimated for the years 2014 through 2019. For each application category, a representative bitrate is established, and this representative bitrate grows at approximately the same pace as the broadband speed. For video categories, a 7‑percent annual compression gain is applied to the bitrate. Local bitrates are then calculated based on how much the average broadband speed in the country differs from the global average, digital screen size in the country, and the computing power of the average device in the country. Combining these factors yields bitrates that are then applied to the MOU.

Step 5: Rollup

The next step in the methodology is to multiply the bitrates, MOU, and users together to get average petabytes per month.

Step 6: Traffic Migration Assessment

The next step is to reconcile the Internet, managed IP, and mobile segments of the forecast. The portion of mobile data traffic that has migrated from the fixed network is subtracted from the fixed forecast, and the amount of mobile data traffic offloaded onto the fixed network through dual-mode devices and femtocells is added back to the fixed forecast.

The sections that follow present quantitative results of the forecast and details of the methodology for each segment and type.

Global IP Traffic Growth, 2014–2019

Table 1 shows the top-line forecast. According to this forecast, global IP traffic in 2014 stands at 59.9 exabytes per month and will nearly triple by 2019, to reach 168.4 exabytes per month. Consumer IP traffic will reach 138 exabytes per month and business IP traffic will surpass 29.6 exabytes per month.

Table 1.       Global IP Traffic, 2014–2019

IP Traffic, 2014–2019

            

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

CAGR
2014–2019

By Type (Petabytes [PB] per Month)

Fixed Internet

 39,909

 47,803

 58,304

 72,251

 90,085

 111,899

23%

Managed IP

17,424

20,460

23,371

26,087

29,274

31,858

13%

Mobile data

2,514

4,163

6,751

10,650

16,124

24,221

57%

By Segment (PB per Month)

Consumer

 47,740

 58,137

 71,453

 88,730

 111,015

 138,415

24%

Business

12,108

14,289

16,973

20,258

24,469

29,563

20%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

20,729

24,819

29,965

 36,608

 44,223

 54,434

21%

North America

 19,628

 23,552

 28,219

 33,641

 41,458

 49,720

20%

Western Europe

 9,601

 11,231

 13,506

 16,396

 20,046

 24,680

21%

Central and Eastern Europe

 4,087

 5,270

 6,896

 9,385

 12,601

 16,863

33%

Latin America

4,297

5,373

6,663

8,299

 10,355

12,870

25%

Middle East and Africa

1,505

 2,180

 3,178

 4,659

 6,800

 9,412

44%

Total (PB per Month)

Total IP traffic

 59,848

 72,426

 88,427

 108,988

 135,484

 167,978

23%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2015

Definitions

   Consumer: Includes fixed IP traffic generated by households, university populations, and Internet cafés

   Business: Includes fixed IP WAN or Internet traffic generated by businesses and governments

   Mobile: Includes mobile data and Internet traffic generated by handsets, notebook cards, and mobile broadband gateways

   Internet: Denotes all IP traffic that crosses an Internet backbone

   Managed IP: Includes corporate IP WAN traffic and IP transport of TV and VoD

 

The following tables show cross-tabulations of end-user segment and network type for the final year of the forecast period (2019). Consumer Internet remains the primary generator of IP traffic, but mobile data has the highest growth rate and begins to generate significant traffic by 2019 (Table 2).

Table 2.       Exabytes per Month as of Year End 2019

            

Consumer

Business

Total

Internet

91

21

112

Managed IP

27

5

32

Mobile data

21

4

24

Total

139

30

168

Source: Cisco VNI, 2015

 

Table 3 shows the same data as Table 2, but in terms of annual traffic run rates. These run rates are based on the monthly traffic at the end of 2019.

Table 3.       Exabytes per Year as of Year End 2019

             

Consumer

Business

Total

Internet

1,097

251

1,348

Managed IP

322

60

382

Mobile data

247

44

291

Total

1,666

356

2,021

Source: Cisco VNI, 2015

 

Consumer and business traffic are both dominated by Internet traffic, although business traffic is more evenly distributed across public Internet and managed IP (Table 4).

Table 4.       Traffic Share by End-User Segment as of Year End 2019

             

Consumer

Business

Internet

66%

71%

Managed IP

19%

17%

Mobile data

15%

12%

Total

100%

100%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2015

 

Consumer traffic accounts for the majority of IP traffic in every network type segment. Consumer traffic will be 81 percent of all fixed Internet traffic, 84 percent of all of managed IP traffic, and 85 percent of all mobile data traffic (Table 5).

Table 5.       Traffic Share by Network Type as of Year End 2019

             

Consumer

Business

Total

Internet

81%

19%

100%

Managed IP

84%

16%

100%

Mobile Internet

85%

15%

100%

Total

82%

18%

100%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2015

 

Consumer Internet traffic will represent over half of all IP traffic, followed by consumer managed IP (VoD), which represents 16 percent of traffic (Table 6).

Table 6.       Overall Traffic Share as of Year End 2019

             

Consumer

Business

Total

Internet

54%

12%

67%

Managed IP

16%

3%

19%

Mobile data

12%

2%

14%

Total

82%

18%

100%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2015

Metro and Long-Haul Traffic, 2014–2019

Metro-only traffic (traffic that traverses only the metro and bypasses long-haul traffic links) surpasses long-haul traffic in 2014, and will account for 62 percent of total IP traffic by 2019. Metro-only traffic will grow nearly twice as fast as long-haul traffic from 2014 to 2019 (Table 7).

Table 7.       Metro and Long-Haul Traffic, 2014–2019

Metro and Long-Haul Traffic, 2014–2019

            

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

CAGR
2014–2019

Metro-Only (PB per Month)

North America

 14,860

 18,402

 22,778

 28,061

 36,048

 45,012

25%

Asia Pacific

 8,459

 10,903

 14,129

 18,389

 23,365

 30,524

29%

Western Europe

 5,517

 6,920

 8,934

 11,569

 15,043

 19,700

29%

Central and Eastern Europe

 896

 1,381

 2,148

 3,376

 5,115

 7,766

54%

Latin America

 917

 1,389

 2,033

 2,856

 3,923

 5,286

42%

Middle East and Africa

 215

 384

 668

 1,127

 1,845

 2,838

67%

Long-Haul (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

 12,270

 13,916

 15,836

 18,219

 20,858

 23,911

14%

Central and Eastern Europe

 3,190

 3,889

 4,748

 6,009

 7,486

 9,097

23%

Latin America

 3,380

 3,984

 4,630

 5,443

 6,432

 7,584

18%

Middle East and Africa

 1,290

 1,796

 2,510

 3,532

 4,955

 6,573

38%

Western Europe

 4,085

 4,311

 4,572

 4,827

 5,003

 4,980

4%

North America

 4,769

 5,150

 5,441

 5,580

 5,410

 4,708

0%

Total (PB per Month)

Total IP traffic

 59,848

 72,426

 88,427

 108,988

 135,484

 167,978

23%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2015

Content Delivery Network Traffic, 2014–2019

With the emergence of popular video-streaming services that deliver Internet video to the TV and other device endpoints, content delivery networks have prevailed as a dominant method to deliver such content. Globally, 62 percent of all Internet traffic will cross content delivery networks by 2019, up from 39 percent in 2014. Globally, 72 percent of all Internet video traffic will cross content delivery networks by 2019, up from 57 percent in 2014 (Table 8).

Table 8.       Global Content Delivery Network Internet Traffic, 2014–2019

CDN Traffic, 2014–2019

             

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

CAGR
2014–2019

By Geography (PB per Month)

North America

 7,162

 9,518

 12,951

 17,603

 23,922

 31,920

35%

Asia Pacific

 4,218

 5,740

 7,988

 11,181

 15,636

 22,029

39%

Western Europe

 3,842

 4,972

 6,690

 9,043

 12,250

 16,683

34%

Central and Eastern Europe

 660

 1,064

 1,742

 2,839

 4,529

 7,079

61%

Latin America

 657

 967

 1,400

 2,005

 2,832

 3,961

43%

Middle East and Africa

 179

 322

 574

 998

 1,676

 2,629

71%

Total (PB per Month)

CDN Internet traffic

 16,719

 22,582

 31,345

 43,670

 60,845

 84,301

38%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2015

Consumer IP Traffic, 2014–2019

As shown in Table 9, global consumer IP traffic is expected to reach 139 exabytes per month in 2019. Most of today’s consumer IP traffic is Internet traffic.

Table 9.       Global Consumer IP Traffic, 2014–2019

Consumer IP Traffic, 2014–2019

             

2014

2015

2016

 2017

2018

2019

CAGR
2014–2019

By Type (PB per Month)

Internet

 31,545

 37,908

 46,511

 58,115

 72,933

 91,048

24%

Managed IP

 14,145

 16,799

 19,344

 21,709

 24,495

 26,824

14%

Mobile data

 2,050

 3,430

 5,599

 8,906

 13,587

 20,544

59%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

 16,433

 19,735

 24,012

 29,681

 36,110

 44,896

22%

North America

 16,609

 19,971

 23,913

 28,401

 35,012

 41,707

20%

Western Europe

 7,506

 8,808

 10,634

 12,996

 16,001

 19,785

21%

Central and Eastern Europe

 2,831

 3,826

 5,181

 7,283

 9,949

 13,579

37%

Latin America

 3,412

 4,338

 5,455

 6,877

 8,649

 10,838

26%

Middle East and Africa

 948

 1,460

 2,259

 3,493

 5,295

 7,610

52%

Total (PB per Month)

Consumer IP traffic

 47,740

 58,137

 71,453

 88,730

 111,015

 138,415

24%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2015

Consumer Internet Traffic, 2014–2019

This category encompasses any IP traffic that crosses the Internet and is not confined to a single service provider’s network. Internet video streaming and downloads are beginning to take a larger share of bandwidth and will grow to more than 80 percent of all consumer Internet traffic by 2019 (Table 10).

Table 10.     Global Consumer Internet Traffic, 2014–2019

Consumer Internet Traffic, 2014–2019

             

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

CAGR
2014–2019

By Network (PB per Month)

Fixed

 31,545

 37,908

 46,511

 58,115

 72,933

 91,048

24%

Mobile

 2,050

 3,430

 5,599

 8,906

 13,587

 20,544

59%

By Subsegment (PB per Month)

Internet video

 21,624

 27,466

 36,456

 49,068

 66,179

 89,319

33%

Web, email, and data

 5,853

 7,694

 9,476

 11,707

 14,002

 16,092

22%

File sharing

 6,090

 6,146

 6,130

 6,168

 6,231

 6,038

0%

Online gaming

 27

 33

 48

 78

 109

 143

40%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

 12,193

 14,571

 17,871

 22,472

 28,380

 36,401

24%

North America

 8,911

 11,087

 14,085

 17,943

 22,886

 28,616

26%

Western Europe

 5,831

 6,860

 8,390

 10,469

 13,208

 16,768

24%

Central and Eastern Europe

 2,595

 3,508

 4,775

 6,746

 9,362

 12,892

38%

Latin America

 3,152

 3,915

 4,823

 6,026

 7,558

 9,514

25%

Middle East and Africa

 912

 1,397

 2,165

 3,364

 5,126

 7,400

52%

Total (PB per Month)

Consumer Internet traffic

 33,595

 41,338

 52,110

 67,021

 86,520

 111,592

27%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2015

Definitions

   Web, email, and data: Includes web, email, instant messaging, and other data traffic (excludes file sharing)

   File sharing: Includes peer-to-peer traffic from all recognized P2P systems such as BitTorrent and eDonkey, as well as traffic from web-based file-sharing systems

   Gaming: Includes casual online gaming, networked console gaming, and multiplayer virtual-world gaming

   Internet video: Includes short-form Internet video (for example, YouTube), long-form Internet video (for example, Hulu), live Internet video, Internet-video-to-TV (for example, Netflix through Roku), online video purchases and rentals, webcam viewing, and web-based video monitoring (excludes P2P video file downloads)

 

Web, Email, and Data

This general category encompasses web browsing, email, instant messaging, data (which includes file transfer using HTTP and FTP), and other Internet applications (Table 11). Note that data may include the download of video files that are not captured by the Internet video to PC forecast. This category includes traffic generated by all individual Internet users. An Internet user is here defined as someone who accesses the Internet through a desktop or laptop computer at home, school, Internet café, or other location outside the context of a business.

Table 11.     Global Consumer Web, Email, and Data Traffic, 2014–2019

Consumer Web, Email, and Data Traffic, 2014–2019

             

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

CAGR
2014–2019

By Network (PB per Month)

Fixed web and data

 4,989

 6,342

 7,436

 8,731

 9,906

 10,625

16%

Mobile web and data

 865

 1,352

 2,040

 2,976

 4,096

 5,467

45%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

 2,083

 2,700

 3,274

 3,973

 4,753

 5,548

22%

North America

 1,568

 2,009

 2,422

 2,884

 3,255

 3,562

18%

Western Europe

 1,094

 1,286

 1,459

 1,662

 1,865

 1,956

12%

Central and Eastern Europe

 396

 681

 1,014

 1,488

 1,972

 2,489

44%

Latin America

 499

 653

 745

 868

 995

 1,095

17%

Middle East and Africa

 213

 364

 563

 833

 1,162

 1,443

47%

Total (PB per Month)

Consumer web, email, and data

 5,853

 7,694

 9,476

 11,707

 14,002

 16,092

22%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2015

File Sharing

This category includes traffic from P2P applications such as BitTorrent and eDonkey, as well as web-based file sharing. Note that a large portion of P2P traffic is due to the exchange of video files, so a total view of the impact of video on the network should count P2P video traffic in addition to the traffic counted in the Internet video to PC and Internet video to TV categories. Table 12 shows the forecast for consumer P2P traffic from 2014 to 2019. Note that the P2P category is limited to traditional file exchange and does not include commercial video-streaming applications that are delivered through P2P, such as PPStream or PPLive.

Table 12.     Global Consumer File-Sharing Traffic, 2014–2019

Consumer File Sharing, 2014–2019

             

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

CAGR
2014–2019

By Network (PB per Month)

Fixed

 6,044

 6,081

 6,046

 6,080

 6,147

 5,961

0%

Mobile

 46

 64

 84

 89

 84

 78

11%

By Subsegment (PB per Month)

P2P file transfer

 5,103

 4,954

 4,714

 4,476

 4,212

 3,728

-6%

Other file transfer

 987

 1,192

 1,416

 1,692

 2,019

 2,310

19%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

 2,526

 2,499

 2,438

 2,445

 2,421

 2,354

-1%

North America

 797

 858

 932

 1,019

 1,145

 1,204

9%

Western Europe

 1,179

 1,142

 1,111

 1,089

 1,074

 1,007

-3%

Central and Eastern Europe

 839

 870

 865

 856

 878

 820

0%

Latin America

 629

 660

 677

 671

 653

 604

-1%

Middle East and Africa

 120

 117

 107

 87

 60

 50

-16%

Total (PB per Month)

Consumer file sharing

 6,090

 6,146

 6,130

 6,168

 6,231

 6,038

0%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2015

Internet Video

With the exception of the Internet video to TV subcategory, all of the Internet video subcategories consist of online video that is downloaded or streamed for viewing on a PC screen (Table 13). Internet video to TV is Internet delivery of video to a TV screen through a set-top box (STB) or equivalent device. Much of the video streamed or downloaded through the Internet consists of free clips, episodes, and other content offered by traditional content producers such as movie studios and television networks.

Table 13.     Global Consumer Internet Video, 2014–2019

Consumer Internet Video 2014–2019

             

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

CAGR
2014–2019

By Network (PB per Month)

Fixed

 20,485

 25,452

 32,981

 43,226

 56,771

 74,319

29%

Mobile

 1,139

 2,014

 3,475

 5,842

 9,407

 14,999

67%

By Category (PB per Month)

Video

 18,437

 22,940

 30,242

 40,907

 55,931

 76,771

33%

Internet video to TV

 3,188

 4,526

 6,214

 8,160

 10,248

 12,548

32%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

 7,579

 9,366

 12,150

 16,039

 21,184

 28,469

30%

North America

 6,535

 8,207

 10,712

 14,009

 18,443

 23,794

29%

Western Europe

 3,550

 4,422

 5,807

 7,696

 10,239

 13,766

31%

Central and Eastern Europe

 1,359

 1,956

 2,894

 4,398

 6,506

 9,577

48%

Latin America

 2,022

 2,600

 3,399

 4,483

 5,905

 7,808

31%

Middle East and Africa

 579

 915

 1,495

 2,443

 3,902

 5,905

59%

Total (PB per Month)

Consumer Internet video

 21,624

 27,466

 36,456

 49,068

 66,179

 89,319

33%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2015

Definitions

   Internet video to TV: Video delivered through the Internet to a TV screen by way of an Internet-enabled set-top box (for example, Roku) or equivalent device (for example, Microsoft Xbox 360), Internet-enabled TV, or PC-to-TV connection

   Video: Video includes the following underlying categories:

     Short form: User-generated video and other video clips generally less than 7 minutes in length

     Video calling: Video messages or calling delivered on fixed Internet initiated by smartphones, non‑smartphones, and tablets

     Long form: Video content generally greater than 7 minutes in length

     Live Internet TV: Peer-to-peer TV (excluding P2P video downloads) and live television streaming over the Internet

     Internet PVR: Recording of live TV content for later viewing

     Ambient video: Nannycams, petcams, home security cams, and other persistent video streams

     Mobile video: All video that travels over a second-generation (2G), 3G, or 4G network

Consumer Managed IP Traffic, 2014–2019

Managed IP video is IP traffic generated by traditional commercial TV services (Table 14). This traffic remains within the footprint of a single service provider, so it is not considered Internet traffic. (For Internet video delivered to the set-top box, see Internet video to TV in the previous section.)

Table 14.     Global Consumer Managed IP Traffic, 2014–2019

Consumer Managed IP Traffic, 2014–2019

             

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

CAGR
2014–2019

By Network (PB per Month)

Fixed

 14,145

 16,799

 19,344

 21,709

 24,495

 26,824

14%

By Geography (PB per Month)

North America

 7,698

 8,884

 9,827

 10,458

 12,126

 13,092

11%

Asia Pacific

 4,240

 5,164

 6,141

 7,208

 7,730

 8,495

15%

Western Europe

 1,675

 1,948

 2,244

 2,526

 2,793

 3,017

12%

Latin America

 260

 423

 632

 851

 1,091

 1,325

38%

Central and Eastern Europe

 236

 318

 406

 537

 587

 686

24%

Middle East and Africa

 36

 62

 93

 128

 169

 209

42%

Total (PB per Month)

Managed IP video traffic

 14,145

 16,799

 19,344

 21,709

 24,495

 26,824

14%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2015

Business IP Traffic

The enterprise forecast is based on the number of network-connected computers worldwide. In our experience, this basis provides the most accurate measure of enterprise data usage. An average business user might generate 4 GB per month of Internet and WAN traffic. A large-enterprise user would generate significantly more traffic, 8–10 GB per month (Table 15).

Table 15.     Business IP Traffic, 2014–2019

Business IP Traffic, 2014–2019

             

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

CAGR
2014–2019

By Network Type (PB per Month)

Business Internet traffic

 8,364

 9,895

 11,794

 14,136

 17,152

 20,851

20%

Business managed IP traffic

 3,279

 3,661

 4,028

 4,378

 4,779

 5,034

9%

Business mobile data

 464

 733

 1,152

 1,744

 2,537

 3,677

51%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

 4,296

 5,084

 5,953

 6,927

 8,113

 9,538

17%

North America

 3,019

 3,581

 4,307

 5,240

 6,446

 8,012

22%

Western Europe

 2,096

 2,423

 2,872

 3,401

 4,046

 4,895

18%

Central and Eastern Europe

 1,255

 1,445

 1,715

 2,102

 2,652

 3,284

21%

Latin America

 885

 1,035

 1,207

 1,422

 1,707

 2,031

18%

Middle East and Africa

 557

 720

 919

 1,166

 1,505

 1,802

26%

Total (PB per Month)

Business IP traffic

 12,108

 14,289

 16,973

 20,258

 24,469

 29,563

20%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2015

Definitions

   Business Internet traffic: All business traffic that crosses the public Internet

   Business managed IP traffic: All business traffic that is transported over IP but remains within the corporate WAN

   Business mobile data traffic: All business traffic that crosses a mobile access point

Mobile Data Traffic

Mobile data traffic includes handset-based data traffic, such as text messaging, multimedia messaging, and handset video services (Table 16). Mobile Internet traffic is generated by wireless cards for portable computers and handset-based mobile Internet usage.

Table 16.     Mobile Data and Internet Traffic, 2014–2019

Mobile Data and Internet Traffic, 2014–2019

             

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

CAGR
2014–2019

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

 977

 1,622

 2,616

 4,114

 6,245

 9,459

57%

North America

 563

 849

 1,287

 1,897

 2,704

 3,798

47%

Central and Eastern Europe

 242

 464

 832

 1,409

 2,231

 3,488

72%

Middle East and Africa

 199

 383

 690

 1,194

 1,927

 3,051

73%

Western Europe

 341

 504

 760

 1,137

 1,653

 2,392

48%

Latin America

 201

 354

 581

 915

 1,380

 2,032

59%

Total (PB per Month)

Mobile data and Internet

 2,524

 4,176

 6,765

 10,666

 16,140

 24,221

57%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2015

For More Information

For more information, refer to the companion document The Zettabyte Era—Trends and Analysis. Inquiries can be directed to traffic‑inquiries@cisco.com.