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Updated Cable / Telco Service Provider Abstract Network (CT-SPAN) modeling tool

The Cisco® Cable and Telco Service Provider Abstract Network (CT-SPAN) model has been updated in line with the latest Cisco Visual Networking IndexTM (Cisco VNITM) forecast, 2016–2021 that was updated in June, 2017. Using this tool, you can effectively and accurately create high-level IP traffic and service revenue growth projections for your network based on variable service mixes and consumer adoption and use of those services.

Introduction to the Tool

The Cisco CT-SPAN tool is a high-level interactive tool to estimate total IP traffic that a cable or a telco service provider would generate based on their residential subscriber footprint and adoption of various services over a 6–year period. The model also creates estimates of high-level service provider revenue that can be generated from the deployment of consumer services such as broadband Internet access and digital television.

While most of the large service providers have a good understanding of what is driving the traffic onto their networks, the CT-SPAN tool allows users to interactively customize IP traffic trends to a cable or telco service provider level using the same assumptions that are used in the Cisco VNI forecast. This tool uses VNI data inputs for detailed macro-level projection of worldwide and regional IP traffic trends. It is a first step toward understanding the effect that a service provider’s residential customers might experience on their networks when they adopt a variety of paid and unpaid network services.

The Cisco CT-SPAN model is simple and flexible enough to provide quick IP traffic estimates based on as many or as few inputs as the user desires. Regional defaults are provided, and users can either accept those default values or provide their own inputs.
The Cisco CT-SPAN model:

  • Works for both cable and telco providers
  • Accommodates as few or as many inputs as the user desires
  • Provides for user-defined revenue-generating unit (RGU) or application across a variety of end-user devices
  • Can adjust average broadband speed, encoding and compression technique, average revenue per user (ARPU), etc.
  • Provides IP traffic estimates with and without the impact of broadcast television
  • Offers ease of use, with regional defaults that users can use as a guidance or input

With, as little as, ten to fifteen minutes spent on the inputs the model will not only generate 6-year estimates of number of subscribers, subscriber revenue, and IP traffic, but, also translation of the annual IP traffic estimates in terms of some common, day-to-day metrics.

Following is a quick snapshot of a Western European cable service provider with 20 million broadband subscribers in 2016 and a digital television subscriber base of 5 million growing at the regional default rates of 1.4 percent and 1.1 percent annually.  We have maintained all of the regional defaults from the model.

In the chart view (data view is also available) above we have excluded the broadcast TV traffic.  Even without that we find that video by far is going to dominate the traffic by application with total video driving 83% of the traffic by 2021, up from 79% of traffic in 2016.  For a telco provider in the region, with the same subscriber base in 2016 the percentage would change slightly to video driving 82% of the total traffic by 2021 – based on different regional defaults for subscriber and device growth, application adoption etc.  There are several interesting outputs available that can give you an idea of how much traffic will be from ultra-high definition versus high definition video or what will be the contribution of Wi-Fi vs. fixed connectivity to the total traffic.  To explore other regions and get a more customized view please interact with Cisco CT-SPAN tool.

Discover further insights on Internet and IP traffic trends in the Cisco 2017 Zettabyte Era: Trends & Analysis Report.

Start using CT-SPAN tool


Topics: Visual Networking Index, (VNI)



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