Dave Evans
Chief Futurist,

Cisco's Futurist Dave Evans—who is also chief technologist for the Cisco® Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG), the company's global strategic consultancy—has grown accustomed to seeing his technology predictions become reality. When he joined Cisco as employee number 398 in 1990, he was charged with deploying the company's first-ever web server. In his mind's eye, however, Evans was envisioning a future of profound applications for web and network technologies. It wasn't long before he was architecting and building these advanced solutions, bringing his ideas into the present while always anticipating the "Next Big Thing."

Evans attributes his success as a prognosticator to his technology "street smarts." He has held every job a technology professional can hold, from crawling over ceiling tiles with computer cables, to writing code for first-generation ecommerce systems, to running massive ERP deployments and managing cross-functional corporate IT teams.

Evans applies his in-depth knowledge of the most bleeding-edge possibilities in science and technology to real-world business opportunities. As a member of Cisco IBSG, he has accomplished this with companies in virtually every industry, conceptualizing futuristic solutions and then building them. For example, his seminal ideas in "mesh networks" are transforming the automotive industry, morphing cars into sophisticated network nodes that will offer highly-customizable services and be virtually self-regulating.

In his role in Cisco IBSG's Innovations Practice, Evans also conceived of, designed the infrastructure, and wrote the software for San Francisco's Connected Bus. This is the first vehicle with comprehensive networking capabilities that include Wi-Fi for riders and onboard computers that create maintenance logs, evaluate vehicle performance, and estimate times for connections.

Evans has numerous innovations on the drawing board, with more than a dozen patents pending for technologies that promise to profoundly change everything from manufacturing, to consumer goods, to literally how we all work, live, play and learn. Patents are pending in areas such as:

• Next-generation RFID, where Evans envisions networking capabilities that will transform product packaging, shipping, and logistics.
• Virtual assistant technology that will mobilize a network of "virtual helpers" to find information for humans coping with a world in which the amount of digital information will double at unprecedented speeds.
• Interactive displays so thin and cost-efficient they will act as "electronic paper" in myriad paper-based products, from newspapers to cereal boxes. Display technology will advance to the point where anything can be a display and people will be able to project images from any consumer device.
• Evans' staggering predictions for the next 40 years are rooted in the fundamental notion that the rate of technology innovation is accelerating faster than most estimations. Exponential growth in storage, bandwidth, information, and computing power will result in technological leaps (what Evans has dubbed the "Technology Avalanche") that will enable unparalleled capabilities. Consider just a few of the implications of a near-term future in which a $1,000 computer will equal the processing power of all of the human brains on earth combined:
• "Smart dust" will connect everything to the Internet, making it possible to sense and manage our world in unprecedented ways.
• Differences in language will become irrelevant to effective communication as computers enable instantaneous translation from one language to another.
• Computers—and their physically animated brethren, robots—will possess not only vastly superior cognitive abilities relative to humans, but also will be "self-aware" and demand human rights.
• Objects will be routinely teleported from one location to another in a Star Trek-like future.

Looking forward, Evans believes one thing is certain: a Technology Avalanche is indeed coming, and we need to prepare for it if we are to capitalize on the profound changes it will enable. Evans is at the forefront of helping companies everywhere do just that. As a result of his outspoken and farseeing predictions, Evans has garnered media coverage from the business press, news media, and technology journals, including Business Week, Fortune, and The Wall Street Journal. Recent coverage in BusinessWeek Online focused on Evans' fascination with robots ("For Silicon Valley Exec, His Wish Is Robots' Command"). Robert Dutt, writing for CRN Canada (Online), quoted him talking about his foundational work, "Technology Avalanche": "'And as with a physical avalanche, it's incredibly disruptive,' Evans said. ‘But you've got a few choices: you can stay here and get crushed, get out of the way, or you can ride it to success.'" The same article notes Evans' belief that human knowledge is still growing exponentially: "'We are looking at a fundamental shift in how the species goes forward,' He said. ‘Fifty years from now, 90 percent of everything we've ever known will have been discovered in those 50 years.'"

Dave’s tweets can be accessed at http://twitter.com/DaveTheFuturist.

On the rare occasions when Evans is not working, he relaxes by designing and building robots, writing code, reading books about science and technology, buying and dissecting scores of first-release products, and predicting with uncanny accuracy how today's technology trends will shape our world. When not engaged in technology pursuits, he enjoys spending time with his wife and two sons traveling or fishing in the Florida Keys.

Innovations Practice