General Questions About the Cisco Visual Networking Index
Q. Why did Cisco develop the Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast?
A. The ramifications of prior Internet traffic growth rates prompted Cisco to develop arealistic forecast that is based on multiple levels and sources of real data and projections. This data is of great interest to Cisco, but wealso expect that our customers (in all segments) and the industry at large can benefit from our findings.
Q. What is visual networking?
A. Consumer and business IP networking trends are largely generated by video and by social networking and collaboration technologies (such as Web 2.0 applications), the combination of which is termed visual networking. A visual networking experience can range from a prearranged Cisco TelePresence® meeting to the upload ordownload of video and multimedia content to and from any device a consumer chooses-TV, PC, mobile handset, or any of the new consumer devices available today, such as e-readers, digital photo frames, and videocameras.
Q. What is an exabyte? What is a zettabyte?
A. An exabyte is 1,000,000,000 gigabytes. A zettabyte is 1000 exabytes. Figure 1 shows examples of data thatreaches such scales.
Figure 1. The Petabyte, Exabyte, Zettabyte, and Yottabyte Scales
Specific Questions About the Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011-2016
Q. What is the Cisco® VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast?
A. The Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast projects future mobile data traffic over cellular networks-for example, second-, third-, or fourth-generation (2G, 3G, or 4G) networks or radio networks. The mobile data traffic forecast is part of the comprehensive Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI). The Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast is published annually in February. The comprehensive Cisco VNI Forecast is published annually in June, and includes the updated Mobile Data Traffic Forecast of the same year.
Q. Why does Cisco develop and maintain the Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast?
A. Although mobile data traffic has historically been a small percentage of overall global IP traffic, mobile data traffic is expected to grow at a 78 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2011-2016, three times faster than the growth of global IP fixed traffic during the same period. Given the rapid growth and changing dynamics in the mobile data space, this data is of great interest to Cisco. We also expect that our customers (in all segments) and the industry at large can benefit from our findings.
Q. Does the Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast include Wi-Fi?
A. Wi-Fi is not included, except in the calculation of traffic offloaded from the mobile network (along with femtocell.) Wi-Fi is included as a fixed network component in the comprehensive VNI Traffic Forecast.
Q. Did global mobile data traffic grow in 2011 at the rate you predicted in last year's forecast?
A. In 2011, global mobile data traffic grew more that 133 percent year over year, to 597 petabytes a month. This aligns with last year's forecast, which projected 131 percent growth year-over-year.
Q. What is the future outlook for mobile data traffic growth based on the updated forecast?
A. Major findings of the Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Forecast, 2011-2016 include the following.
• By 2016, there will be more than 10.3 billion mobile-connected devices, more than one mobile-connected. device for every member of the world's population (7.3 billion).
• By 2016, global mobile data traffic will reach 10.8 exabytes per month, or a run rate of 130 exabytes annually.
• By 2016, 71 percent of the world's mobile data traffic will be video; mobile video traffic will double every year between 2011 and 2016.
• Global mobile network connection speeds nearly doubled in 2011 and will increase 9-fold by 2016, exceeding 2.8 Mbps.
• The Middle East and Africa will have the strongest mobile data traffic growth of any region at 104 percent CAGR, followed by Asia Pacific at 84 percent and Central and Eastern Europe at 83 percent.
• By 2016, the amount of mobile data traffic generated by tablets will be more than quadruple the total amount of global mobile data traffic generated in 2010.
• Machine-to-machine (M2M) data traffic will increase 22-fold from 2011 to 2016, reaching 508 petabytes per month by 2016.
Q. In the 2011 mobile data forecast, you predicted a 2010-2015 CAGR of 92 percent. In this update, youpredict a 2011-2016 CAGR of 78 percent. Why did the projected growth rate decline?
A. While the slight decline in the growth rate is a typical example of S-curve growth, the actual amount of traffic continues to represent significant growth. Consider that the previous Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Forecast projected that monthly mobile data traffic would reach 6.4 exabytes per month by 2015. This year, we anticipate that monthly global mobile data traffic will reach 6.9 exabytes per month by 2015.
Q. Have there been any methodological changes since the last forecast update?
A. In the February 2012 update of the Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Forecast, we have included in Japan as part of the Asia Pacific region, rather than reporting it separately as in the previous forecasts. We have also added Chile and Argentina into Latin America, Spain into Western Europe, and Indonesia into Asia Pacific.
Q. How are mobile devices and connections categorized and defined in the current Cisco VNI Global Mobile DataForecast?
A. The current Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Forecast includes the following mobile device categories.
• Nonsmartphones: Handheld phones with a closed operating system.
• Smartphones: Mobile phones offering advanced capabilities such as the ability to run applications, often withfunctionality like that of a PC. Smartphones run complete operating system software and provide a standardized interface and platform for application developers.
• Home gateways: Mobile broadband gateways are access points with integrated routing and switching capabilities. These devices allow a group of users to share a mobile broadband connection and may also have integrated security features such as VPN pass-through and firewalls.
• Laptops: This category includes laptop computers, netbooks, and ultra-mobile PCs connected to the mobile network through mobile broadband data cards, dongles, or embedded modems.
• Tablets: This category includes mobile-connected tablets (typically with average screen size of 7 inches) and what are usually referred to as mobile internet devices (typically with average screen size of 4 to 6 inches).
• E-readers: E-readers are handheld consumer electronics devices that can access and store a wide range of digitized books for portable use. Newer generations of e-readers are also taking on tablet-type functionality.
• Other portables: This category includes handheld gaming consoles, digital cameras and camcorders, digital photo frames, and in-car entertainment systems. Photo frames can read, store, and display digital photos in slideshow mode (the most popular screen sizes fall in the 7-inch to 8-inch range). Cellular-enabled digital photo frames can download photos from online photo sites through an embedded cellular modem card. In some cases, the digital photo frame is assigned a phone number or email address sothat pictures can be sent directly from a mobile phone to the frame.
• M2M modules: Machine-to-machine technologies that allow systems to communicate with other devices of the same capability, such as utility metering, security and surveillance, fleet management, GPS and navigation, asset tracking, and healthcare record devices.
Q. What mobile applications are covered in the current Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Forecast?
A. The updated forecast covers a variety of applications, some of which are not included in the formal study. The following applications, based on two mobile device groups (handsets and portables) are generally covered.
Q. Can you define the relationship between subscriber, user, device, and connection?
A. Within the mobile data forecast, the terms subscriber and user are used interchangeably to identify the end-user generating the mobile data traffic. The device is the endpoint (for example, nonsmartphone, smartphone, tablet, or M2M module). The connection is per device to the cellular network.
Q. How do you distinguish between business and consumer traffic?
A. We (and our relevant data sources) differentiate between business and consumer mobile data traffic by billing practices or records. Therefore, if a mobile subscription is paid by a business, it is applied to our business traffic segment. All other subscriptions are considered to be consumer subscriptions.
Q. What are the top applications promoting the growth of mobile data traffic?
A. Video continues to the major application generator for mobile data traffic growth. Video reached a milestone at the end of 2011, accounting for 52 percent of global mobile data traffic, and will account for 71 percent of global mobile data traffic by 2016. In addition, mobile gaming traffic will grow 17-fold from 2011 to 2016, as new mobile-connected games become available and mobile-connected devices begin to displace devices on the fixed network for gaming activities.
Q. What is the impact of tiered pricing models on mobile usage? Are there any new insights on the top 1 percent of mobile users?
A. Average consumption per user in an unlimited pricing plan is nearly twice that of a user of a tiered pricing plan. However, traffic per user has increased 169 percent for tiered pricing plans compared to 83 percent on unlimited plans, indicating that tiered pricing users may be seeking to fully maximize their usage plans.
New findings indicate that the top 1 percent of users is different each month. Therefore, out of each 10,000 users, there are not only 100 heavy users (1 percent), but 500 to 1,000 users (5 to 10 percent) that are in the top 1 percent at some time during the course of a year.
Q. Why does this forecast include a section on IPv6-capable mobile devices?
A. With increasing industry awareness about the shortage of IPv4 addresses and transition to IPv6-capable networks, the Global Mobile Data Forecast provides an initial projection of the number of mobile devices potentially capable of connecting to an IPv6-capable mobile network. This analysis will continue to be developed and integrated into the next comprehensive VNI report, which will be published in June 2012.
Q. Can I or my organization/company use or publish Cisco VNI Forecast data?
A. Yes. Cisco welcomes and encourages press, analysts, service providers, regulators, and other interested parties(business or academic) to use and reference our research. We do require that proper Cisco attribution begiven for any and all Cisco VNI data that is published or shared in private or public print and electronic forms (for example, Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index [or VNI] Global Mobile Data Forecast, 2011-2016).
Q. How can I ask questions about the Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Forecast data?
