Cisco Global Cloud Index - Tredobling av datasentertrafikk

  • 75 prosent av all datasentertrafikk vil være fra skyen innen 2018.
  • Halvparten av jordens befolkning vil ha internettilgang i sine boliger innen 2018.
  • Mer enn en fjerdedel av jordens befolkning vil ha personlig skylagring innen 2018.

Oslo, oktober 2014: Cisco utgir for fjerde år på rad sin Cisco Global Cloud Index (2013-2018). Cisco forventer fortsatt sterk vekst i skytrafikke.

For å sette 7,7 zettabyte i perspektiv:

  • tilsvarer 1,5 år med musikkstreaming for hele jordens befolkning i 2017 - 107 billioner timer
  • tilsvarer 2,5 timer med daglig HD-streaming for hele jordens befolkning i 2017 - 8 billioner timer

Nettskyen i vekst

Ett av funnene i årets indeks er at veksten fra nettskyen for alvor har satt fart. Trafikk i nettskyen vokser med hele 450 prosent innen 2017. Det innebærer en vekst på 35 prosent årlig vekstrate.

I stor grad er det private nettbrukere som sørger for den massive veksten i datatrafikk. Alt i 2012 stod konsumentdata i skyen for 78 prosent av den totale mengden data i skyen på 1,2 zettabyte. Frem til 2017 vil veksten være kraftig både for forretnings- og konsumentdata i skyen, men veksten vil være noe sterkere for konsumentdata (36 mot 31 prosent årlig vekstrate). For 2017 estimerer Cisco at hele 81 prosent av all datatrafikk i skyen (5,3 zettabyte) er generert av konsumenter.

- Selv om mye av veksten i skyen kommer fra private nettbrukere, ser vi helt klart at også bedriftsmarkedet har begynt å ta i bruk sky-baserte tjenester. Våre kunder har også en økende etterspørsel etter avanserte tjenester, som for eksempel tale og video, sier Gamlem.

Den sterkeste prosentvise veksten i skytrafikk vil Midtøsten og Afrika stå for med 57 prosent årlig vekstrate frem til 2017. Asia og Oceania følger med 43 prosent mens Europa forventes en årlig vekstrate på 36 prosent frem til 2017.

Interntrafikk utgjør mest

For alt av datasentertrafikk, utgjør brukerutløst trafikk likevel kun 17 prosent. Dette er trafikk som web, e-post, videostreaming, videokonferanser etc. Datasenter som kommuniserer med andre datasentre utgjør 7 prosent av trafikken. I stor grad er dette trafikk generert av oppdateringer og datareplikering.

Den store bolken, hele 76 prosent av datatrafikken i datasenteret, er interntrafikk. I stor grad er dette snakk om generering av lagrede data og midlertidig datatrafikk generert gjennom virtualisering.

Nøkkelfunn:

  • Global datasentertrafikk vil tredoble seg innen 2017.
  • Global skytrafikk vil vokse raskere enn den generelle globale datasentertrafikken.
  • Global skytrafikk vil stå for mer enn 2/3 av den globale datasentertrafikken.

For mer informasjon, vennligst kontakt:

Nils-Ove Gamlem, teknologidirektør i Cisco Norge
Telefon: 982 93 695
E-post: nog@cisco.com


Om Cisco Global Cloud Index (2012-2017):
Indeksen er utviklet for å estimere datatrafikk og trender for både datasenter og skybasert IP-trafikk. Indeksen er generert gjennom modellering og analyse av forskjellige primær- og sekundærkilder, inkludert 40 terabyte av månedlig datatrafikk hentet fra et variert utvalg globale datasenter, 90 millioner nettverkstester og tredjeparts markedsanalyser.


Komplimenterende informasjon:

  • The Cisco Global Cloud Index (2012-2017) was developed to estimate global for data center and cloud-based Internet Protocol (IP) traffic growth and trends. The Cisco Global Cloud Index serves as a complementary resource to existing network traffic studies, providing new insights and visibility into emerging trends affecting data centers and cloud architectures. The forecast becomes increasingly important as the network and data center become more intrinsically linked in offering cloud services.
  • The Cisco Global Cloud Index includes a "workload transition" forecast, which shows the workload shift from moving from traditional data centers to more virtualized cloud servers.
  • The forecast also includes a supplement on Cloud Readiness Regional Details, which examines the fixed and mobile network abilities of each global region (from nearly 150 countries) to support business and consumer cloud-computing applications and services.
  • The Cisco Global Cloud Index is generated by modeling and analysis of various primary and secondary sources, including 40 terabytes of monthly traffic sampled from a variety of global data centers over the past year, results from more than 90 million network tests, and third-party market research reports.

Key Highlights/Findings:

  • Global data center traffic growth will increase threefold by 2017 - Cisco forecasts that global data center traffic will triple from 2.6 zettabytes in 2012 to 7.7 zettabytes annually in 2017, representing a 25 percent CAGR.
  • Global cloud traffic will grow faster than overall global data center traffic - The transition to cloud services is driving global cloud traffic at a growth rate greater than global data center traffic. Global data center traffic will grow threefold (a 25 percent CAGR) from 2012 to 2017, while global cloud traffic will grow 4.5-fold (a 35 percent CAGR) over the same period.
  • Global cloud traffic will account for more than two-thirds of total global data center traffic - Globally, cloud traffic will grow from 46 percent of total data center traffic (98 exabytes per month or 1.2 zettabytes annually) of total data center traffic in 2012 to 69 percent of total data center traffic (443 exabytes per month or 5.3 zettabytes annually) of total data center traffic by 2017.
  • Cloud traffic growth by region: The Middle East and Africa will have the highest cloud traffic growth rate from 2012 to 2017 - The Cisco Global Cloud Index now includes regional forecast data for cloud traffic growth.
    • In 2012, North America generated the most cloud traffic (469 exabytes annually), followed by Asia Pacific (319 exabytes annually) and Western Europe (225 exabytes annually).
    • By 2017, North America will generate the most cloud traffic (1.886 zettabytes annually), followed by Asia Pacific (1.876 zettabytes annually) and Western Europe (770 exabytes annually).
  • Workload transitions: From 2012 to 2017, data center workloads will grow 2.3-fold; cloud workloads will grow 3.7-fold - In 2012, 39 percent of workloads were processed in the cloud, with 61 percent being handled in a traditional data center.
    • 2014 will be the first year when the majority of workloads shift to the cloud; 51 percent of all workloads will be processed in the cloud versus 49 percent in the traditional IT space.
    • By 2017, nearly two-thirds or 63 percent of workloads will be processed by cloud data centers; 37 percent will be processed by traditional data centers.
    • The ratio of workloads to nonvirtualized cloud servers will grow from 6.5 in 2012 to 16.7 by 2017. Comparatively, the ratio of workloads to nonvirtualized traditional data center servers will grow from 1.7 in 2012 to 2.3 by 2017.
  • Workload growth by region: By 2017, North America will have processed the most cloud workloads, followed by Asia Pacific - The Cisco Global Cloud Index now includes regional forecast data for workload growth.
    • In 2012, North America had the most cloud workloads (15.2 million or 47 percent of global cloud workloads), followed by Asia Pacific, which had 6.8 million or 21 percent of global workloads in 2012.
    • By 2017, North America will process the most cloud workloads (48.2 million or 41 percent of global cloud workloads), followed by Asia Pacific, which will have 36.5 million or 31 percent of global workloads by 2017.
    • From 2012 to 2017, the Middle East and Africa region is expected to have the highest cloud workload growth rate (45 percent CAGR), followed by Asia Pacific (40 percent CAGR) and Central and Eastern Europe (31 percent CAGR).
    • Globally, except in the Middle East and Africa and Asia Pacific, traditional data center workloads (rather than cloud workloads) will grow at a low-single-digit CAGR from 2012 to 2017.

Cloud Readiness:

To assess cloud readiness, various fixed and mobile network attributes were analyzed. Average and median upload and download speeds and latencies were analyzed (median values were added this year to understand the variability of end-user cloud readiness within each country). Network performance characteristics are provided across each geographic region: Asia Pacific, Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, Middle East and Africa, North America and Western Europe. For this study, the following sample application categories were applied:

  • Basic Cloud Apps / Network Requirements
    Download Speed: Up to 750 kbps; Upload Speed: Up to 250 kbps; Latency: Above 160 ms. Sample consumer basic services: text communications (email, instant messaging), web browsing, personal content locker (non-multimedia), e-banking, single player gaming, social networking (text only), basic video/ music streaming. Sample business basic services: text communications (email, instant messaging), VoIP, web conferencing
  • Intermediate Cloud Apps / Network Requirements
    Download Speed: 751-2,500 kbps; Upload Speed: 251-1,000 kbps; Latency: 159-100 ms
    Sample consumer intermediate services: smart home, personal content locker (multimedia), online shopping, multi-player gaming, social networking (multi-media/ interactive), HD video/ music streaming, IM video chat
    Sample business intermediate services: ERP/CRM, IP audio conferencing, video conferencing
  • Advanced Cloud Apps / Network Requirements
    Download Speed: >2,500 kbps; Upload Speed: Higher than 1,000 kbps; Latency: <100 ms
    Sample consumer advanced services: connected education, connected medicine, HD video chat, Super HD video streaming, 3D video streaming. Sample business advanced services: virtual office, HD audio conferencing, HD video conferencing,
  • All regions' current average fixed network performance characteristics can support an intermediate level of cloud services today.
  • The fixed networks of Asia Pacific, North America, Central Eastern Europe, Western Europe and Latin America can support advanced cloud applications.
  • All regions' current average mobile network performance characteristics can support some level of cloud services today.
  • The mobile networks of Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa, and Latin America can support basic cloud applications.
  • The average performance of the mobile networks of Central and Eastern Europe, North America and Western Europe can support intermediate cloud applications.
  • Most regions have some outlier countries with fixed and mobile network performance results that are higher than their region's average cloud readiness metrics. For example, the mobile networks of individual countries such as Hong Kong and Singapore in Asia Pacific, and United Arab Emirates in the Middle East and Africa can support advanced cloud applications

*Concurrent use of multiple applications requires even higher network performance capabilities than the requirements for individual application support shown above. Concurrent application requirements are covered in the Cisco Global Cloud Index Forecast and Methodology, 2012 - 2017.

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Supporting Resources:

Editor's Note:

  • Cisco welcomes and encourages analysts, bloggers, media, regulators, service providers and other interested parties to use and reference Cisco's research with proper attribution: "Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index."

Tags/Keywords:

  • Cisco, Global Cloud Index, Data Center Traffic, Cloud Traffic, Cloud, Cloud Computing, Data Center, Virtualization, Service Provider, Telecom, Enterprise, Consumer, Zettabytes

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